Suck out!

Hero in SB with Q-J off suit
Four limpers, hero completes, BB checks
Six players, 3 big bets
Flop 10-K-A rainbow
Hero bets, three callers
Four players, 5 big bets
Turn 9
Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG +2 raises
Folds to hero who three bets
UTG fold, UTG +2 calls
Heads up, 11 big bets
River 10
Hero bets, UTG +2 apologizes, calls and show A-10 for full house
Hero mucks

It’s been said that if you don’t get sucked out on regularly you aren’t playing correctly.  It’s incredibly frustrating to be the “victim” in the hand above but it does happen to me with some regularity.  It would be nice to understand why suck outs happen to tight-aggressive players more often as some consolation.

My turn 3-bet in the above hand is a good example of pressing a hand for value.  The 9 on the turn changed nothing in my opponent’s range.  The worst I can do is chop at this point.  Better players understand hand strength and get extra bets in.  The majority of my opponents don’t and I’ve seen them just call in spots like this, over and over.  Getting an extra bet in also bloats the pot.

The two aspects of value in any hand are folding equity and showdown value.  In order to maximize showdown value you need two things as well.  You need to get money in the pot (by bloating it) and you have to get to showdown.  Typically, in small stakes fixed limit, getting money in the pot often also overlaps with getting to showdown because the pot is offering such good odds.  What this means is if I am playing correctly, aggressively pressing hands for value, I’m also making it more likely that strong (draws and second best) hands will call down.  Opponents calling down with draws and strong (but 2^nd best) hands are good news for me but also means they will draw out from time to time.  The alternative is not very palatable.

Without a showdown the only value a hand has is its fold equity, basically just two face down cards.  In the above hand, had I bet and everyone folded (or one caller who folds on the turn) I may as well have been betting two napkins for the 3 measly big bets I earned.

It’s good news to have my big hands paid off but that satisfaction comes with a price.  I have to allow for the inevitability of my opponents sucking out on me.  Otherwise, I turn every hand into 7-2.