More on Connectors

When caught in stretch of card death it can often be tempting to play small one or even two gap connectors.  Nearly all of my opponents are playing hands like 6-8 and 7-5 so when I enter my second hour without a whiff of a playable hand and look down to see 8c-10c the urge to limp and try and see a cheap flop can be pretty overwhelming (suitedness notwithstanding as suited cards will give 2 or 3% bump in equity which can be significant if a hand is four or five ways). My previous post talked a bit about the perils of playing small connected cards but what about gappers?  Are they significantly worse to play compared to “zero” gap?

Here’s a quick analysis I did comparing one gap and no gap connectors:

7-5

4-6-8 (nuts)
3-4-6 (nuts)
6-8-9 (not nuts, 7-10 beats)

6-8-x (9 could be dirty, counts as six outs)
6-4-x (eight full outs)

7-8

4-5-6 (nuts)
5-6-9 (nuts)
6-9-10 (nuts)
9-10-J (not nuts, 8-Q and Q-K beat)

5-6-x (eight full outs)
6-9-x (eight full outs)
9-10-x (J could be dirty, six outs)

The zero-gap connector allows for four flopped straights, three of which are the nuts (barring a flush or someone drawing out) while the one-gap gives only three with just two being the nuts. So, the zero-gap connectors are clearly superior in terms of chances of a gin flop.  What’s much more common is flopping a draw.  When determining betting decisions you have to account for “dirty outs.”  Essentially, if an out card comes on the turn or river to make my hand but that card could also make my opponent’s stronger hand, I can’t count that as a full out. I have to discount that card by counting it as only a half an out.  In any given straight draw you normally have eight outs giving you about 33% equity.  This is a strong hand and gives a significant edge if the hand is three or four ways.  The zero-gap connector has three draws, two of which have eight full outs.  The one-gap connector only has two draws, just one of which gives eight full outs.  With two out cards being potentially dirty we can only get six outs giving us about 24% equity.  Unless the pot is very large or there are five or more players in the hand, we don’t have odds to continue.

From this analysis we can see that connected cards are clearly superior to in both made hands and draws to gapped connectors.  Reminding myself of this fact will help me to put that 8-10 where it belongs, in the muck.