Transitioning to No Limit

1-2 NL Live.  Stacks around $150

Hero 3 off the button (low jack) with 7d-8d
Two limpers, hero limps
Highjack limps
Button raises to $10
One limper calls
Hero calls
Highjack calls
Four players, $43
Flop Jc-5d-3c
Limper checks, hero checks
Button bets $30
Everyone folds

Same hand

Hero raises to $10
Button calls, Limper calls
Three players, $33
Flop Jc-5d-3c
Checks to hero who bets $15
Button calls, limper folds
Heads up, $66
Turn Qh
Hero bets $60
Villain folds

The second hand is an example of situations I faced on my last trip to Las Vegas over and over.  I’ve been transitioning to no limit and spread limits games and I had a very fruitful meeting with my coach, Ed Miller.  Ed emphasized to me that most consistent and disastrous mistake players will make against you is that they play too many hands.  When players have junk hands they rarely hit big and can play aggressively.  A much more likely case is hitting the flop lightly and having two options: 1.) Call down or 2.) Fold.

During the Moneymaker era when fish schooled into casinos to play poker, calling down was the option of choice.  Chips rained from heaven in those days and it was easy to make truckloads of money by waiting around for big hands and getting paid off.  The more common option these days is to fold.  Regular players have learned that making big calls with marginal holdings is generally not the way to make money in poker.  They would never make a pot sized bet on the river without having very close to the nuts and assume others would play this way as well.  The problem nearly all regular players have is that because they play too many hands they are caught too often with marginal hands.  Hands like unsuited connectors, suited rags and ace-rag typically flop middle or bottom pair, or top pair with a weak kicker.  These hands almost always don’t improve and when faced with a big bet on the turn players fold.

The trick is to realize the fundamental error that low stakes players make (playing too many hands) and the two options they have with these weak holdings (calling or folding).  When you are lucky enough to find a game where opponents are calling down with weak hands the game becomes as simple as the halcyon days of Moneymaker:  sit back, make hands and press for value. 

Much more common is to find tables full of regular players who have become very good at not paying off big value hands.  The flop in the hand above is a perfect example.  Regular players recognize that single high card and very dry boards polarize an opponent’s range.  Either the leading bettor is very strong or bluffing.  When a big bet comes on the later streets these players figure they have gotten their answer and fold their weak middle pair, gut shot or overcards.

Exploiting this tendency of players folding too much is tantamount to out-and-out thievery.  Ed talks about the fact that advanced players make most of their money by out playing opponents on the later streets.  Most players play pre-flop and on the flop well so my goal is to build pots on these first two streets to steal on the later streets.  The question I am asking myself when dealt a hand I’m going to play is “How can I set up this hand so that a big turn bet, designed to steal this pot, is nearly automatic?”  The two biggest factors in this question are hand selection that yields good equity and solid board texture reading.

In the above hands 7-8 suited is excellent not because it flops monsters but because it yields such good equity by the river.   The flop completely missed this hand but so many cards can come on the turn (any diamond, 10 , 6, 7 or 8) that improve my hand.  My flop bet isn’t just a naked bluff that I’m plowing in.  I have equity.  So many times my opponents will have weak hands but in the few cases when the do flop a set or two pair, I have a ton of ways to get there by the river.  That can never happen if I play hands like A-rag.

Ed has said it a million times, the bread and butter of advanced players is solid board texture reading.  Had the flop been Q-K-10 there would have been no reason to continue betting at this pot because I have no equity and my opponents aren’t going anywhere.  Another reliable aspect of regular players is that they don’t bluff enough.  If I check the flop and they come out with a bet on the turn I can be confident they have a hand enough of the time to make my fold a good decision.

When considering board texture, the key card is the turn.  Most flops come down loosely connected with a single or two high cards.  Opponents will most often have gut shots, three or four card flush draws, middle or bottom pair or top pair with a weak kicker.  The Qh in the above example is a good brick card because it doesn’t complete any draws and it’s a good scare card to what I am representing.  Even if the card does hit my opponent who has maybe Qc-6h it would be very hard for him to continue when faced with big bets on the turn and river.  My 7-8 with this board is good enough that even bad cards like a 4 or 6 that improve my opponents hands, also improve mine.  Pretty much only the board pairing is what I would need to worry about (making trips and full houses), cards that improve my opponents but not me and may lead to me drawing dead or very slim.

Essentially what Ed is asking me to do is turn my game upside down.  What I’ve been doing up till now is waiting for hands with big pot equity, raising preflop and praying to hit the board.  Usually, on missing the flop I would c-bet, praying to improve on the turn but rarely putting a big bet out unless I did.  Now, I am happy to see a brick on the turn and am less concerned about the two cards I am playing.  I only know that card didn’t improve my opponent’s hand and they will consistently fold to a big bet.  Occasionally an opponent will turn up with a slow played set or two pair and put in a big raise.  Because they don’t bluff enough, I can be confident in my fold.  Even if they show the bluff it still doesn’t change my answer because they are still folding the turn 70-80% of the time.  My turn bets are a profit lock in this scenario.