One of the big lessons Ed Miller hammered home with me is to become very clear in my mind about my reason for betting. Most players will say the reason they bet is because they believe they have the best hand. I’ll discuss this reason more later but I’ve often found that players have lots of other reasons.
David Sklansky is famous for his theorem of poker that basically says he who makes the fewest mistakes of the smallest size, wins. Many players interpret this idea to mean that their goal at the table is to get opponents to make the biggest mistakes possible. So, if I can make intimidating bets to make my opponent muck their winning hand, I’m heading in the right direction. Likewise, if I can make weak plays with the intent of getting opponents to call with weaker hands, again I’m getting the best of it.
In limit hold’em I’ve seen this play out over and over. So many players get so frustrated when they are far out ahead on the flop but an opponent hangs on despite their ferocious betting and draws out on the river. In the same vain, I’ve seen so many players moan in disgust as they turn over pocket A’s when they limped in preflop only for everyone to fold when they bet out on the flop.
Some players also bet to bluff. In the games I play in bluffing doesn’t happen often but I’ve seen it. Players with absolute air, betting like crazy to steal a pot playing little attention to what the board looks like.
Finally, I’ve seen many many players bet and raise because they want to “thin the field” or isolate on who they think is a weak player. These players aren’t sure they have a winning hand yet but the know allowing other players to draw for one bet will “price them in” and they may draw out.
Ed told me that most of these reasons are simply wrong headed. The plain truth is no one has any control at the poker table of anything that goes on. Players play erratically and there is no possible way to get them to call or fold, price them out of a pot or any other course of action. The best a player can do is clearheadedly watch your opponents tendencies, realistically evaluate the possibilities and make the best decisions you can given the information available. Which brings me to the original reason to bet, for value.
Bets and raises should never be designed to try and influence opponents one way or another. Rather, when deciding to bet, I need to think about when called, what percentage of my opponents range of possible hands he’s playing am I ahead of AND how does that percentage of hands I’m beating stack up against my bet relative to the size of the pot. An example: when the pot is large, 8 big bets, and I’m betting one to get 8, I only need to be ahead of a little more than 12% of my opponents range to make that bet profitable. This is value betting and is the essence of fixed limit poker.
This analysis also applies to bluffing. A bluff isn’t trickery, “seeing into your opponents’ soul” or some other method devised to manipulate. It’s simply the analysis of what percentage of my opponent’s hands (given the flop texture and what I know about their playing) are they unwilling to showdown with AND how does that percentage stack up against the odds the pot is laying me for my bet.
Ed describes fixed limit as “one big percentage play.” Basically, I’m betting when I think I’ve got enough of an edge given the size of the pot and I’m folding if I don’t. Notice there is almost no room in this philosophy for checking and calling. That’s because betting and raising is almost always right in limit hold’em. The size of the bets are so small relative to the size of the pot, it’s mathematically correct to just stick the money in. Ed says all players must use discretion and let the board texture and your reads on your opponents guide your decision making. Also, solid fundamentals are critical to this strategy such has only playing premium hands.
However, Ed advocates that in most situations I need to simply just be betting. Another power element of this strategy is the benefit of disguising my hand strength and balancing my play. It’s very easy for opponents to put me on a hand if I’m just betting and raising when I’ve got it and checking or calling when I don’t. If I’m always betting and raising my play becomes much less transparent. Opponents are left wondering what I have or how to react to me. Furthermore, some opponents, some of the time, will fold. This “fold equity” can be added on top of that range percentage I’m using to guide my decision making.
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