Another lesson Ed Miller gave me was on the folly of the free card play. He’s not opposed to using it but with good players, it simply gives too much away.
I posted a hand here in the blog a few months ago about using the free card play and thought I had done well using it (I ended up missing my flush but succeeded in getting to showdown “for free”). Ed says that when playing against better players using this trick, you might as well turn your hand face up. He said too many players fall into predictable habits in their play that are easily exploitable by better players. I should beware when I start talking in terms of, “I always play my strong draws like this when I’m in position.”
For example, say my better playing opponent has a draw along with me. I have position, he bets and I raise going for my free showdown play. I miss on the turn, he checks and I check behind. I miss on the river as well, BUT SO HAS MY OPPONENT. An observant opponent will know in this situation that I bet when I make my draw, and check when I don’t. Since I checked on the turn, he is going to bet ANY card on the river unless it’s 100% obvious that I made my draw. His bet relative to the size of the large pot means I only have to fold my hand a small percentage of the time for that bet to be profitable.
In this light the “free” card play isn’t all that free. I’m paying a HUGE price for the one or two times it works in my favor because in all subsequent situations like this my opponents will have a very solid tell on me. Ed says when he spots habitual behavior with opponents he will almost always check to them to see what they do. If they bet, he’s pretty sure they made their draw and not pay them off. If they check behind, he bets a later street and often picks up the pot, regardless of his holdings.
Ed says a much better approach is to “just keep betting.” The size of bets in fixed limit hold’em relative to the size of most pots just makes it mathematically right to keep firing. Many times the fold equity alone will make it profitable. An example:
I was playing 6-7 off suit in a short handed game one off the button. There were two limpers in front of me. I over limped, the button called, the SB completed and the big blind checked. The flop came 8-5-2 with two diamonds. One of the limpers bet, I raised. It called around to the better who three-bet, I capped and everyone but the button called. The turn was a 10 of diamonds. I was worried about a flush but it checked to me and I bet. The blinds folded and the two remaining players called. The river was a Q of clubs and it checked to me again. I had two players to get through. It was very likely both were on draws along with me and that both had missed, just like me. There were about 20 big bets in the pot. Betting 1 to get 20, my opponents have to fold only about 5% of the time to make this play profitable. I stuck a bet out there and lo and behold, they both folded. I took down a $160 pot with 7 high!
Another great benefit with continuing to bet draws is opponents will pay me off when I do make my hand because they simply can’t be sure of what I have. If my actions are consistent regardless of my holdings it is very difficult for opponents to get a read on me and my play becomes much more balanced. No longer do I have to wait around for the stone cold nuts to bet and win. Most of the time I will loose these hands but the times I do win these pots will be big enough to overcome the losses.
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