A Nice Hand?

Oddly enough, one of the reasons for me seeking out poker coaching is the fact that I’ve been doing so well lately.  Having winning sessions can mask problems with a player’s game.  Because a pot is shoved your way doesn’t necessarily mean you played the hand well.  In fact, this phenomenon can actually reinforce poor playing habits that will bleed a player’s bankroll dry in the long run.  An example of one of these hands is as follows:

Limped pot

Hero on the button with Q♥-7♥

Four players, 2 Big bets in the pot.

Flop:  J♥-5♠-6♥

Small blind bets

2 calls

Hero Raises

Small blind re-raises

The other two players fold

Hero makes it four bets

Small blind calls

Heads up, 7 Big Bets in the pot

Turn 7♣

Small blind checks

Hero bets

Small blind calls

Heads up, 9 Big Bets in the pot

River Q♦

Small blind checks

Hero bets

Small blind calls

Hero shows two pair, Small blind mucks his hand.

On first blush most players would look at this hand and say, “Great!  You won!  Nice hand!”  But was it?  With only one limper pre flop and me on the button, a much better play would have been to raise to try and get heads up with the limper.  An open limp is a very weak play and leaves one thinking “what could he have?”  Probably a very speculative hand that isn’t worth a raise and is very unlikely to connect with the flop.  I have a suited queen that has some slim showdown value, why allow the small blind 7:1 on a call and the big blind a free look at the flop?  If there were more than one limper in front of me, the overlimp makes sense, but not just a solitary player, raise away!

My flop raise was good.  I have a very strong hand against three players that is going to win about 36% of the time, far more than the expected average of 25% for the total of four players in the hand.  My goal is to get as much money as I can into the pot at this point, but SURPRISE, the Small blind ruins my plan by three betting and the other two opponents fold.  Now, my 36% is not looking so good.  Heads up with the Small blind, I need to be winning better than 50% of the time in order for any more bets go into the pot.  All bets going into the pot at this point are “going in bad” so here is my second mistake, the 4^th bet.

The turn gives me a pair but only 2^nd pair and completes a straight draw.  My opponent’s check is puzzling and could signal weakness but I’m still very unlikely to get him to fold and my hand is still not anywhere near the 50% equity I need to bet, but I bet anyway.  Mistake number three. A check behind and take my free card would have been a better play.  (incidentally, if I was out of position here, a bet probably would be the preferred play as sort of a blocking play, denying my opponent the option of checking or betting).

The saving Q on the river gives me the winning hand, so I hit a lucky card which does happen, especially in limit hold’em.  I do make the correct play of value betting the river and my opponent does call (out of position the better play might be to check here, concerned that only better hands will call and weaker hands would fold.  I also would be hoping my opponent might see the river as a scare card and try a bluff and I could call or check-raise).

I suppose the only consolation for this hand (besides winning the pot) is the fact that I have this hand analysis tool now that opens up a whole new way for me to understand why the decisions I make are incorrect.  I have my coaches and mentors to thank for this.  Hopefully soon it will result in better decisions at the table and long term profitability instead of lucky variance.