Overcard Hangover

You know the scenario. A loose passive game and you wake up in middle position with A-Q of diamonds.  There is a limper in front of you and you raise.  The button, both blinds and the limper call; four players and you to the flop.  It comes J of diamonds, 5 of hearts and deuce of spades.  It checks to you, you missed the flop, and now you don’t know what to do.

This all too common situation is the reason why I’ve fallen into the habit of limping with these types of hands.  My thinking goes like this:  “Overcards are not made hands so why would I want to commit an additional small bet before I even see the flop.  When I miss the flop (I will at least a 2/3 of the time), I’ll be really glad I only committed one small bet and my hand will be easy to get away from with the pot small and only two cards to come.”  Another incentive I’ve come across is a small amount of deception it adds to my game.  On the occasion I do connect with the flop and make top pair, I’m often called down to the river by a dominated hand because my opponent doesn’t suspect my strong kicker since I didn’t raise pre-flop.

Ed Miller, David Sklansky and Mike Malmuth in their book, Small Stakes Hold 'em: Winning Big With Expert Play, challenge this thinking about playing overcards.  They point out that a hand as strong as A-Q suited is indeed a made hand and occasionally does win unimproved.  More importantly, poker is not a game to be played timidly if I want to win.  I must press my good hands for value.  A-Q suited is far better than such a large majority of starting hands.  It has a much bigger pot equity edge above any random hand.  Limping with such a strong hand fails to exploit the mistake my opponents make when they enter the pot with hands like A-x, Q-9 and the like.

My mind still wants to rationalize that the amount of money I make when I win pots post-flop will make up for the money I miss by not raising pre-flop.  In other words, I sacrifice pre-flop for post-flop expectation.  For some hands this makes sense like A-3 suited or K-J off suit.  Against loose-passive opponents the pre-flop equity edge is smaller so the sacrifice isn’t as large.  However, A-Q suited is FAR too strong a hand for this type of play.  The amount of money I win after the flop won’t overcome the amount I miss by not raising pre-flop.

If I’m honest with myself, I have to admit that the real reason I don’t pre-flop raise with my strong hands is that I’m afraid of a bad beat.  By raising I tie my opponents to the pot, giving them odds to call me down and suck out.  “Winning a small pot is better than loosing a big one” I rationalize.  But, a critical part of winning poker is evaluating expectation and making the correspondingly correct decisions.  There is no way to win long term without this ability.  I need stop allowing my insecurity to dictate my decisions and focus on the half full part of the glass.  Winning a big pot is better than winning a small one.  In fact, the difference in the size of these winnings (long term) will also be the difference in being a winning or loosing player.