Fat and Thin Equity

I can't remember exactly but I think it was one of my poker gurus, Owen "qtip" Gaines, from whom I learned about the concept of fat and thin equity.  Finding thin equity is the edge that expert poker players have and what separates them from the pack.  Hands that normally would find their way into the muck when played by mere mortals somehow end up picking up small (and sometimes big) pots in the hands of an expert.  When my pocket 7's miss the flop I am almost always going to pitch them when the action gets around to me.  Yes, I'm going to grown and gnash my teeth when a 7 comes on the turn but with only about 8% equity (4% on the river) the pot would have to be absolutely gargantuan for me to call even one small bet.  Making this call is one of the HUGE mistakes bad players make and the reason why they are usually felted within half an hour and have to rebuy.

However, in the hands of an expert, 77 might represent the thin equity edge he/she could press to win a small pot here and there during a session.  Doing so a few times during a session could be the difference between winning and loosing for the night.  Being able to identify spots where you can press for thin equity takes some very advanced skills such as hand reading and identifying the style of play from opponents.  Expert players would consider things like how many players are in the hand, what they did pre-flop and what their tendencies have been thus far and the historic understanding of their playing style.  Taking the playing style and mood for the day of opponents, mixed with their action so far, figuring out the ranges of hands is next and how pocket 7's match up.  An expert might ask him/herself: "What percentage of these possible ranges am I ahead of?  If this identical situation was played out a thousand times, how often would I need to be good in order to make this call?  What is likely to happen on future rounds of betting?  What's my plan if my hand does or doesn't improve?  How might any given turn or river card affect my opponents hands."  And then, there is all the metagame elements:  "What's my history with this player?  Did I get caught bluffing recently against him/her?  How quickly or out of tempo did this player bet/call?  What hands am I representing here?  What are the better hands I think I could get to fold?  What does my opponent think I'm thinking what their hand is?"

Are you starting to get the picture?  Taking this myriad of factors and whipping them up into a coherent picture of what's going on in a hand is the level of play I aspire to some day.  Until that time most poker coaches recommend the patience and discipline of beginners waiting for hands with fat equity and pressing them for value.  This is especially true in the loose passive action of the fixed limit games I play in.  For the beginner the best strategy is to have a really clear picture of what hand you are hoping to make (for the record I'm counting primary draws among those hands but not backdoor or one-card draws) and have the discipline to muck your cards when that hand doesn't materialize.

Today, I woke up with pocket 9's in late position.  The flop came K-7-3 and it checked to me with one player behind on the button.  I was sure enough this player didn't have a K so I decided to try my thin equity edge and bet.  The button called and two other players called as expected.  The turn was a 2 with only two of a suit on board.  It checked to me again and I bet again, the button called and the other two folded.  I figured he had a 7, a weak K, a smallish pocket pair or turned a flush draw.  The river was a 6 putting three of a suit on board.  I checked fearing a flush and he turned over pocket 6's with a "sorry" and a sheepish grin.  I decided to press my thin equity in this situation and I got spanked for it.

Later in the session I had the same pocket 9's but this time the flop came 9-8-8.  Two players bet into me.  I smooth called the flop, popped the turn and won a big pot (in addition to a $200 high hand jackpot).  These two stories are good examples of how the same hand can represent both thin and fat equity.  Some day I'll get to the point of being able to exploit thin equity but until that time, I'm going to try and have the discipline to wait for fat equity situations and press them for value.