A hand I played in the other night went this way: I was in the big blind with J-5 of diamonds. A woman under the gun limped in, the cutoff and button limped, the small blind completed and I checked. The flop came 10-8-4 all of diamonds. The small blind checked and I decided to bet figuring it possible the A of diamonds was lurking out there and I had to make that player pay to draw (aka hand protection). The UTG woman raised, the rest of the players called and I three bet. Everyone called. The turn was a blank, I bet, UTG woman called and the rest of the players folded. I bet the river (also a blank) and the woman called and turned over two diamonds, K-3.
My opponent in this hand was the typical loose-passive player I see; playing far too many low expectation hands, staying in hands too long and not pressing good hands for value. I certainly didn't expect that she had a flush and if she did that it wasn't as good as J high. I felt like she probably had a set, two pair or less likely a 10 with a strong kicker or a naked A or K of diamonds. A raise with a naked Ad would actually be a very good line to take (as well as an open ended straight draw) in this spot hoping to get to showdown for free, but I didn't feel she was capable of this type of play. Only 18 combinations of hands could have beat me (A, Q and K combined with the other diamonds left in the deck). This compared to the very large number of her much more likely holdings such as sets, two pairs, over pairs or weaker flushes that I'm absolutely crushing unless the board pairs or another diamond comes.
Flopped flushes are so incredibly rare (117:1). When it happens you have to squeeze every ounce of equity out that you can because it's probably not going to happen again for a LONG time. Two players flopping a flush is nearly twice as rare (205:1). Given the hand combo analysis and the sheer odds in my favor, I believe my aggressive line was very appropriate. So, what can I take away from this hand?
Winning fixed limit hold'em is about picking up extra bets by pressing your good hands for value but it's also about saving bets when you can. Saving bets can be employed by making good plays (like the free show down raise mentioned above) and, of course, by not playing low expectation hands and not overplaying only moderately strong made hands (like top pair) and hopeless draws. Not many players realize the importance of saving bets. The example I laid out above was during a session that I ran fairly poorly in but while other players at the table had to rebuy over and over, I was able to hobble along with only my original $140 buyin. By saving bets over and over I was enabling myself to play many more hands than my opponents for a much lower price. This, in fact, was one of the first things I noticed when I started to learn to play better poker, that I was playing much longer sessions for the same amount of money.
I've talked about the importance of winning against weaker players but what's also important is LOOSING LESS against those same opponents. The woman I lost the above hand to made a very critical error against me. While I clearly had a spot to press for value, she had an EVEN GREATER opportunity and let it pass. Calling the three bet on the flop was OK, maybe even the turn, but to not even raise on the river when I was so obviously pot committed? That was downright sinful and it SAVED me at least $8 and maybe more. Although it was painful to loose that pot, if I can focus on the 1/4 of the glass that's full and realize the money saved allowed me to live on and fight another day, it takes some of the sting out.
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