Overcard Hangover

You know the scenario. A loose passive game and you wake up in middle position with A-Q of diamonds.  There is a limper in front of you and you raise.  The button, both blinds and the limper call; four players and you to the flop.  It comes J of diamonds, 5 of hearts and deuce of spades.  It checks to you, you missed the flop, and now you don’t know what to do.

This all too common situation is the reason why I’ve fallen into the habit of limping with these types of hands.  My thinking goes like this:  “Overcards are not made hands so why would I want to commit an additional small bet before I even see the flop.  When I miss the flop (I will at least a 2/3 of the time), I’ll be really glad I only committed one small bet and my hand will be easy to get away from with the pot small and only two cards to come.”  Another incentive I’ve come across is a small amount of deception it adds to my game.  On the occasion I do connect with the flop and make top pair, I’m often called down to the river by a dominated hand because my opponent doesn’t suspect my strong kicker since I didn’t raise pre-flop.

Ed Miller, David Sklansky and Mike Malmuth in their book, Small Stakes Hold 'em: Winning Big With Expert Play, challenge this thinking about playing overcards.  They point out that a hand as strong as A-Q suited is indeed a made hand and occasionally does win unimproved.  More importantly, poker is not a game to be played timidly if I want to win.  I must press my good hands for value.  A-Q suited is far better than such a large majority of starting hands.  It has a much bigger pot equity edge above any random hand.  Limping with such a strong hand fails to exploit the mistake my opponents make when they enter the pot with hands like A-x, Q-9 and the like.

My mind still wants to rationalize that the amount of money I make when I win pots post-flop will make up for the money I miss by not raising pre-flop.  In other words, I sacrifice pre-flop for post-flop expectation.  For some hands this makes sense like A-3 suited or K-J off suit.  Against loose-passive opponents the pre-flop equity edge is smaller so the sacrifice isn’t as large.  However, A-Q suited is FAR too strong a hand for this type of play.  The amount of money I win after the flop won’t overcome the amount I miss by not raising pre-flop.

If I’m honest with myself, I have to admit that the real reason I don’t pre-flop raise with my strong hands is that I’m afraid of a bad beat.  By raising I tie my opponents to the pot, giving them odds to call me down and suck out.  “Winning a small pot is better than loosing a big one” I rationalize.  But, a critical part of winning poker is evaluating expectation and making the correspondingly correct decisions.  There is no way to win long term without this ability.  I need stop allowing my insecurity to dictate my decisions and focus on the half full part of the glass.  Winning a big pot is better than winning a small one.  In fact, the difference in the size of these winnings (long term) will also be the difference in being a winning or loosing player.

Is the Glass One Quarter Full or Three Quarters Empty?

A hand I played in the other night went this way:  I was in the big blind with J-5 of diamonds.  A woman under the gun limped in, the cutoff and button limped, the small blind completed and I checked.  The flop came 10-8-4 all of diamonds.  The small blind checked and I decided to bet figuring it possible the A of diamonds was lurking out there and I had to make that player pay to draw (aka hand protection).  The UTG woman raised, the rest of the players called and I three bet.  Everyone called.  The turn was a blank, I bet, UTG woman called and the rest of the players folded.  I bet the river (also a blank) and the woman called and turned over two diamonds, K-3.

My opponent in this hand was the typical loose-passive player I see; playing far too many low expectation hands, staying in hands too long and not pressing good hands for value.  I certainly didn't expect that she had a flush and if she did that it wasn't as good as J high.  I felt like she probably had a set, two pair or less likely a 10 with a strong kicker or a naked A or K of diamonds.  A raise with a naked Ad would actually be a very good line to take (as well as an open ended straight draw) in this spot hoping to get to showdown for free, but I didn't feel she was capable of this type of play.  Only 18 combinations of hands could have beat me (A, Q and K combined with the other diamonds left in the deck).  This compared to the very large number of her much more likely holdings such as sets, two pairs, over pairs or weaker flushes that I'm absolutely crushing unless the board pairs or another diamond comes.

Flopped flushes are so incredibly rare (117:1).  When it happens you have to squeeze every ounce of equity out that you can because it's probably not going to happen again for a LONG time.  Two players flopping a flush is nearly twice as rare (205:1).  Given the hand combo analysis and the sheer odds in my favor, I believe my aggressive line was very appropriate.  So, what can I take away from this hand?

Winning fixed limit hold'em is about picking up extra bets by pressing your good hands for value but it's also about saving bets when you can.  Saving bets can be employed by making good plays (like the free show down raise mentioned above) and, of course, by not playing low expectation hands and not overplaying only moderately strong made hands (like top pair) and hopeless draws.  Not many players realize the importance of saving bets.  The example I laid out above was during a session that I ran fairly poorly in but while other players at the table had to rebuy over and over, I was able to hobble along with only my original $140 buyin.  By saving bets over and over I was enabling myself to play many more hands than my opponents for a much lower price.  This, in fact, was one of the first things I noticed when I started to learn to play better poker, that I was playing much longer sessions for the same amount of money.

I've talked about the importance of winning against weaker players but what's also important is LOOSING LESS against those same opponents.  The woman I lost the above hand to made a very critical error against me.  While I clearly had a spot to press for value, she had an EVEN GREATER opportunity and let it pass.  Calling the three bet on the flop was OK, maybe even the turn, but to not even raise on the river when I was so obviously pot committed?  That was downright sinful and it SAVED me at least $8 and maybe more.  Although it was painful to loose that pot, if I can focus on the 1/4 of the glass that's full and realize the money saved allowed me to live on and fight another day, it takes some of the sting out.

Fat and Thin Equity

I can't remember exactly but I think it was one of my poker gurus, Owen "qtip" Gaines, from whom I learned about the concept of fat and thin equity.  Finding thin equity is the edge that expert poker players have and what separates them from the pack.  Hands that normally would find their way into the muck when played by mere mortals somehow end up picking up small (and sometimes big) pots in the hands of an expert.  When my pocket 7's miss the flop I am almost always going to pitch them when the action gets around to me.  Yes, I'm going to grown and gnash my teeth when a 7 comes on the turn but with only about 8% equity (4% on the river) the pot would have to be absolutely gargantuan for me to call even one small bet.  Making this call is one of the HUGE mistakes bad players make and the reason why they are usually felted within half an hour and have to rebuy.

However, in the hands of an expert, 77 might represent the thin equity edge he/she could press to win a small pot here and there during a session.  Doing so a few times during a session could be the difference between winning and loosing for the night.  Being able to identify spots where you can press for thin equity takes some very advanced skills such as hand reading and identifying the style of play from opponents.  Expert players would consider things like how many players are in the hand, what they did pre-flop and what their tendencies have been thus far and the historic understanding of their playing style.  Taking the playing style and mood for the day of opponents, mixed with their action so far, figuring out the ranges of hands is next and how pocket 7's match up.  An expert might ask him/herself: "What percentage of these possible ranges am I ahead of?  If this identical situation was played out a thousand times, how often would I need to be good in order to make this call?  What is likely to happen on future rounds of betting?  What's my plan if my hand does or doesn't improve?  How might any given turn or river card affect my opponents hands."  And then, there is all the metagame elements:  "What's my history with this player?  Did I get caught bluffing recently against him/her?  How quickly or out of tempo did this player bet/call?  What hands am I representing here?  What are the better hands I think I could get to fold?  What does my opponent think I'm thinking what their hand is?"

Are you starting to get the picture?  Taking this myriad of factors and whipping them up into a coherent picture of what's going on in a hand is the level of play I aspire to some day.  Until that time most poker coaches recommend the patience and discipline of beginners waiting for hands with fat equity and pressing them for value.  This is especially true in the loose passive action of the fixed limit games I play in.  For the beginner the best strategy is to have a really clear picture of what hand you are hoping to make (for the record I'm counting primary draws among those hands but not backdoor or one-card draws) and have the discipline to muck your cards when that hand doesn't materialize.

Today, I woke up with pocket 9's in late position.  The flop came K-7-3 and it checked to me with one player behind on the button.  I was sure enough this player didn't have a K so I decided to try my thin equity edge and bet.  The button called and two other players called as expected.  The turn was a 2 with only two of a suit on board.  It checked to me again and I bet again, the button called and the other two folded.  I figured he had a 7, a weak K, a smallish pocket pair or turned a flush draw.  The river was a 6 putting three of a suit on board.  I checked fearing a flush and he turned over pocket 6's with a "sorry" and a sheepish grin.  I decided to press my thin equity in this situation and I got spanked for it.

Later in the session I had the same pocket 9's but this time the flop came 9-8-8.  Two players bet into me.  I smooth called the flop, popped the turn and won a big pot (in addition to a $200 high hand jackpot).  These two stories are good examples of how the same hand can represent both thin and fat equity.  Some day I'll get to the point of being able to exploit thin equity but until that time, I'm going to try and have the discipline to wait for fat equity situations and press them for value.

Tale of Two Snowmen

Snowmen, in poker parlance, is the name given to a hold'em staring hand of a pair of eights.  They are the low end of middle pocket pairs (88 thru JJ) that sometimes give players headaches in trying to figure out what to do.  Small pairs, 22 thru 77 are great to play.  I'm almost always committed to seeing a flop in the hopes of hitting a set.  A dream flop in a situation like this would be something like K-8-4 holding 4-4 against a raise pre-flop and really punish a player with AK.  Conversely, a hand like 4-4 isn't good for much else except hitting a set, so when failing to connect on the flop it's easy to know what to do (see Pot Equity vs. Post Flop Strategic Advantage).

But, "Snowmen" are a little more difficult to know how to handle.  Say you are on the button with 88 in a limped pot with four players and the flop comes Q-5-2 and it checks around to you.  Do you bet?  If so, what is the purpose of the bet?  It may be for value; you probably have the best hand, but maybe not.  Loose-passive players love to play naked paint cards like Q-6 hoping to hit trips or two pair.  They have top pair but know enough not to bet out, fearing domination and a raise behind.  If the board continues to look harmless (and even if it doesn't!), these calling stations will show down with you every time.   Also, your hand is very vulnerable.  Any 9 or better could come to beat you with so many players in the hand.

Your bet could be to charge others to draw, but the pot isn't all that small.  Hands like K-10, J-9 or any A might have odds to call against you (see Reversed Implied Odds).  Your bet might be a semi-bluff but you are only drawing to two outs and there is almost no chance of getting a better hand to fold for reasons stated above.

Most players will check hoping the board comes very harmless, call a turn bet and hope the river goes check-check wanting to see their opponent turn over a hand like A-5.  In order to capitalize on a hand like Snowmen you really need to have good hand reading skills and have a good understanding of the relative strength of your holdings given the flop texture and your opponent's tendencies.

The other night I woke up with pocket A's in late position.  I raised pre-flop, several players called but only one player called me down to the river.  The board was fairly harmless and paired a 9 on the river.  My opponent turned over Snowmen.  After I raked in the pot I heard her complain that the nine gave me two pair that she would have won with two pair had the nine not come.  Another player tried to correct her, saying I had pocket A's but she was still too inured in her hand.  She appreciated the fact that the absolute strength of 88 is very good.  In a no-limit hand, heads up, Snowmen is a favorite against even powerhouse hands like AK.  But, in our fixed limit game with multiple players, in a raised pot, her 88 was fairly weak against the possible range of hands she was up against.

Earlier in the evening I had Snowmen on the button.  The flop came with one paint card and it checked around to me.  I checked.  The turn was a harmless card and a very loose-agressive player to my right bet.  I called.  The river was another blank and the player checked.  I bet.  He called and turned over 66. Given his tendencies, I thought he was taking a stab and felt my holdings were pretty strong against his very large range.  I guessed right and won the pot.