Pot Equity vs. Post Flop Strategic Advantage

Hand selection and playing tight are the basics for winning poker, especially in the weak loose action so often associated with low stakes fixed limit hold’em.  If I am the tightest player at the table in most games I play in, I will win money but to be the expert I aspire to, I need a few more tools in my kit.  Post flop play is going to be the bread and butter of any winning fixed limit player.

To guide my post flop decision making I need to understand the importance of the aspects of different starting hands.  One way to do this is to follow Ed Miller’s thinking about splitting hands into the categories of high pot equity hands versus hands that have post flop strategic advantage.

Hands with good pot equity are cards of a high rank and closely connected.  Obviously, pocket A’s would fit into that category, all the way down to probably pocket 10’s.  AK would also fit into this category, all the way down to QJ.  High pot equity refers to the fact that these hands have a high probability of winning when they connect, even lightly, with the flop and sometimes unimproved.

By comparison, hands with a good post flop strategic advantage will almost never win unimproved and will need to connect with the community cards solidly in order to win.  Small pocket pairs (9’s down) and small suited connectors like 89 suited on down are examples of these hands.  The reason that these hands are so playable is that there is seldom any doubt what to do with them on the flop.

In some ways I enjoy playing suited connectors and small pocket pairs better than playing big pocket pairs.  Have you even raised with QQ only for an A to come on the flop (and no queen) and get bet into?  How to handle this situation really depends on your ability to observe and exploit your opponent’s play.  In some cases if there is a lot of action in front of you it might be appropriate to just fold.  If it gets checked to you and you bet but get check-raised, how do you deal with that?  What if the turn makes three to a straight or flush?  These hands can give even the best players fits and can cost you a lot of money.

When I’ve got a hand with a post flop strategic advantage like pocket 5’s the path forward is often much more clear.  I either connect with the flop or I don’t.  If I don’t connect with the flop I'm  only drawing to two outs and they may not even be very clean (another 5 would make my set but also possibly make an opponent's draw).  It’s very clear that I should just fold.  With suited connectors if I make an open ended or double gut straight or a flush draw I have enough outs to call most any bet, unless there is monstrous action ahead of me.  Either way, the decision making is easy.  And that is the essence of poker, making good decisions.  Whenever I can make my choices as simple possible I have a big advantage.