Poker players are notoriously bad at estimating their own success. This isn’t anything different from most human activities and folk’s reckoning of their effectiveness in a given task. I’ve taken to using a tracking application for my Iphone to try and get some objective data on how I’m doing but it brings up an interesting question. What, exactly, is success in poker.
We don’t have to talk about success in money terms but that is pretty much how winning is determined in most player’s minds. So, how do we measure that? Bankroll size? Winning percentage? Total dollars won?
Most players track winning by their win rate. In live poker win rate is expressed in the number of big bets won per hour of play. A very successful player will win about 1.5 big bets per hour and 2 per hour is considered crushing the game. In a 4-8 Fixed Limit game that’s about $10 per hour or about half a stack of $1 chips. I was pretty shocked when I first learned that. Considering how easy it is to get $15-20 into a pot in only ONE hand, it doesn’t take much to turn an average winning session into a loosing session.
Win rate calculation may be the most effective way of gauging your progress but it doesn’t take into account a very important factor, the rake. A rake is the amount of money skimmed off each and every pot by the house to cover their expenses of providing a game to players (and a little extra…). In addition, most card rooms take an extra amount above the rake to cover the cost of promotional gimmicks such as a high hand contest, bad beat jackpot and Monte Carlo bonuses.
Let’s say to win your $10 in a 4-8 game you average about two pots won each hour. The rake at my local casino is $4 and $1 for bonuses for a total of $5. I may be winning $10 per hour but I’m also paying $10 in rake. This issue is why so many professional card players avoid low stakes, because it is so hard to beat the rake.
Win rates are confounded somewhat by the rake because in order to win the 1.5 big bets per hour you are actually performing at about 2.25, taking the rake into consideration. That means that unless you are some sort of rock star poker player, variance is stepping in and artificially inflating your performance. Conversely, you could be a loosing playing at -.25 big bets per hour but taking rake into consideration, you are actually winning 1 big bet per hour. You should be a winning player but the rake is taking away all your money!
So, if it’s difficult (or near impossible) to be a long term winner at low stakes fixed limit, what’s the purpose of playing? Well, for me (besides the intrinsic value of playing competitive poker) it all comes down to one word, experience. There simply is no substitute for learning the game by playing the game. My goal is to move up in stakes so the rake becomes less burdensome but unfortunately, there are no shortcuts. So many players before me have taken their shot at moving up to higher stakes without being bankrolled for it and not having the skills to survive. They paid the price and I’m willing to tread water for a few years to not make that mistake.
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