Reverse Implied Odds

Implied odds are super important to winning poker.  If faced with a call on the turn, figuring out your pots odds can give you an idea if it’s profitable to continue.  But, implied odds take into account future betting and can make the difference in deciding if you should continue.

Lets say you have you have Q-10 off suit and the board is J-8-2-7, rainbow (no possible flush).  There are two opponents in and you are faced with a bet.  You have four outs to make your gut shot straight and another three outs to hit your Q because it is likely the better has a J.  With 7 outs the pot needs to lay you about 6:1 in order for this call to be profitable.  In other words, if this exact situation were to be played out over and over, the river card will make your hand a little less than 1 time in 6.  For your call on the turn to be profitable, the pot needs to be paying you 6:1 or better or it won’t cover the cost of all those times you loose.

Implied odds account for future betting.  So, in the above situation if the pot is only laying you 5:1 for your call on the turn, it’s still profitable to call because the one or maybe two extra bets that go into the pot on the river will push the odds over the 6:1 you need.  Miller, Sklansky and Malmuth in Small Stakes Hold’em refer to this situation as free rolling on the river.  If you don’t make your hand you don’t loose any extra bets (because you just fold) but you can make an extra bet (or two) if you do.

The authors also talk about how implied odds can also work against you (or for your opponents).  These reverse implied odds have the most impact on weak made hands that are very vulnerable to being drawn out on.

Let’s say I have 10 of clubs, 3 of spades in the big blind with three other players in.  The flop comes 10 of diamonds, 7 of diamonds and 6 of hearts and the small blind bets.  I should just fold.  You say, “But you have top pair!  Why fold?”  Because there’s a good chance someone else has a better kicker but more importantly, reverse implied odds is working against me.  I have no redraw, the pot is small and my opponents have odds to call down against me in a spot where my hand that is very vulnerable to being drawn out on.  It’s very likely someone has a J or better and straight and flush draws are also very possible here.

Learning this little nugget also drives home for me the critical importance of reading board texture.  Understanding what the possible hands are out there and judging my hand against what I’m likely up against is a basic and crucial skill in poker.