A hand I played the other night went like this:
I was in middle position with AJ of diamonds. The under the gun player limped and I raised. A fellow to my left called and the button, blinds and the open limper called. The flop came 3-J-6 rainbow. It was checked to me and I bet. Everyone called. The turn was an 8. Checked to me and I bet. The player to my left called, the button and blinds folded and the UTG player called. At this point I was concerned about two pair or a slow played set and resolved to check-call the river if I didn’t improve. The river was a K. It checked around and the player on my left showed K3 and snatched the pot from me.
Many players would muck their hands in disgust, grumbling “suckout” and brood over what they felt was a bad beat. But was this a suckout or a bad beat? Let’s take a look:
Mr. K-3 had bottom pair on the flop and five outs. He was right to put me on top pair good kicker because of my preflop raise and the flop texture made it unlikely that I made two pair. So, he was correct in assuming he would win with trips or two pair. The pot was laying him better than 12:1 on the flop and he was about a 5:1 underdog to make his hand by the river. The pot was laying him about 10:1 on the turn and was about a 9:1 dog to make his hand on the river. It was close but I could see making this call, especially since he didn’t know what the button and blinds would do. If they called the implied pot odds would clearly make it a correct call.
So, the bad beat wasn’t really a bad beat at all. I made the correct decision to press what was the best hand and he made the correct decision to call down with the odds he was given. The biggest mistake he made wasn’t calling me down with bottom pair; it was cold calling a pre-flop raise basically holding only one card. I would never play a hand of hold’em with only one hole card but many players do in the games I frequent.
So, should I be upset that this fellow deciding to play K3 against my AJ suited? Many players bemoan low stakes hold’em because they believe play like this lowers the skill level of the whole game. They say things like, “It’s like playing bingo! I might as well just play a slot machine!” These players long to play higher stakes “Where opponents respect my raises.”
Miller, Sklansky and Malmuth in their book, Small Stakes Hold’em point out that every cent you earn, long term, in poker comes from your opponents’ mistakes and predicable play. It’s absurd that I should be angry that Mr. K-3 played junk against my hand. If I could see his cards, I’d want him to call EVERY TIME because my hand is so far out ahead. Losing poker, long term, isn’t about my opponents bad play, it’s because of my mistakes and failure to exploit theirs.
I might question if a player in MP playing K-3 off calling a raise pre flop is really playing a lag style. I don't think that he would be the type of player to worry about any else's cards but his own. He showed no aggression all thoroughout the hand. Sounds like he was just there to gambool.
ReplyDeleteHey Roy! Thanks for the response!
DeleteI agree, I’d say cold calling a pre flop raise and then checking behind after spiking K’s up on the river are both pretty big signs of a loose-passive calling station, not loose-aggressive. Pretty typical of nearly all of my opponents playing live 4/8. I also agree that most of these players have a vague sense of how the action goes in these games but are by no means putting other players on hand ranges and don’t think anywhere near in terms of equity. My point in my post is basically even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then. The close to correct thing this guy did (purely by accident) was calling down given his odds and what the pot was laying him, NOT deciding to play K-3 by cold calling a preflop raise and then missing a bet on the end. He’s right to defend his 15 or 20% equity. But, it’s on him to have such meager chances of winning in the first place. Honestly, he did the right thing by calling down and I gotta be happy (in the big picture) that he plays like this. I win the max when I win and I lose the least when he pulls a hand out of his butt like this. So, hurray for me!