Small Suited Connectors

Small suited connectors (2-3 to 8-9) are good to play in low fixed limit games because they have a very good post flop strategic advantage.  These hand s have very little pre-flop pot equity.   They almost never win unimproved, so it makes little sense to raise before seeing the flop.  But, when the flop does come down it pretty easy to know what to do with these hands, right?  Small suited connectors are often lumped together with small pocket pairs for this reason, poor pot equity but good post flop strategic advantage.  With pocket 5’s it’s pretty clear what to do when the flop comes down A-Q-3 and faced with a bet.  You have only two outs and the pot would have to be HUGE to peel even one card.  Even when the flop comes 7-4-2 and it’s back to you in middle position with a bet from the button and a call in between and one player left to act behind you, it’s not a bad play to go ahead and fold.  So many bad things can happen on a board like this.  Even if you make your hand and a 5 comes on the turn or river, you may not be good because of the straight.  So, even though there’s a decent chance your fives are best, it’s probably right to go ahead and fold.

But, let’s say the same flop comes and you now have a suited 7-8 of diamonds with one diamond on board.  Now the hand has becomes a lot more complicated.  This is the reason why I don’t think small suited connectors should be in the same category as small pocket pairs.  The reason we like playing small suited connectors is it’s supposed to be easy to know what to do on the flop.  When we hit, we hit hard and the hand plays itself.  When we miss, it’s easy to get away from the hand.  But, that’s not the case now.  Now, we have a very vulnerable top pair that we need to bet to protect, but do we?  If there are three or more players making it one small bet to go will not encourage anyone with a gut shot to go anywhere.  Even middle and bottom pair is likely sticking around hoping to improve.   So, a bet does nothing to protect but what about value?  Our hand as razor thin value because so many overcards can come and with three players or more, open-enders even have us beat.

On the above hand we can check the flop and see if the button or any other late player bets.  If the bet comes we have to carefully evaluate if the player is capable of taking a stab with a weak holding.  Raising in this spot might give us a smidge of folding equity but puts us on a tightrope.  Guess right and we can take down the pot on the turn when a brick or scare card comes.  Guess wrong and we can lose a big pot.

This discussion brings to light the trouble that small suited connectors pose that muddy their alleged post flop strategic advantage.  By far the most likely improvement of any hand in hold’em is making one pair.  So, when holding 7-6 and the board comes K-Q-6 that’s really no problem.  But, if it comes 7-2-3, now our world has become a lot more uncertain.  Playing small suited connectors put a lot of pressure on your post flop game.  Understanding that fact and being ready to try and find your way through the forest is the way to go.  Otherwise, be content to play big pot equity hands and pocket pairs that make decisions much easier.

Whoa! Back it up!

One of the concepts I’ve been working on with reading board texture is reverse implied odds.  Implied odds, you may know, are the extra bets you can add to pot odds when considering continuing in a hand with a draw.  Gut shot straight draws are a good example.  If there are three of four players in a hand and I have a got shot draw, the pot as it is on the flop is probably not big enough to justify me drawing to only four outs.  But, having to pay only one small bet (another benefit to playing in position) with the expectation of getting two or three more big bets on the next two streets and adding those to the pot will push my odds over the threshold.

Reverse implied odds come into play when considering what my opponents may be drawing to and the equity they have in the hand with their draw.  The concept is especially important when “dirty” outs come into play.  A good portion of the time, cards that come on the turn and rive may make my hand but may make my opponents stronger hand.  Here’s an example.

Hero in cutoff with Ad-Js
Three limpers, hero raises
Big Blind calls, all limpers callFive players, 5 big bets
Flop 9s-10d-Qd

This flop hits all kinds of hands but what’s most concerning is thatmy outs are likely dirty.  Straight and flush draws all have significant equity against me and even if my A is currently ahead I have very little equity because these draws hit so often.  I have terrible reverse implied odds. 6 and 7 are bad cards and probably the worst card would also make my hand, the J.  Even if I hit my A I’m still not super in love with my hand as KJ is crushing me and I’m also vulnerable to my opponent’s two pair hands.  So, while I do have an open ended draw, It’s probably not worth continuing to bet at this pot as my opponents aren’t going anywhere and half my straight outs are likely dirty as well.

Highly coordinated flops that don’t hit you are not worth barreling on and reverse implied odds are the reason.  

Tail of Two Variances

Learning to identify variance is a super important part of being a good card player.  It’s a skill that has to be developed and is one of the more tricky one’s to master for me.  When variance strikes I typically have two reactions.  I grumble at a player who I think is making poor poker choices and getting rewarded for it.  Or, I curse my fate and wonder if I’m misplaying or if I’m just not cut out to be a threat at the card table.

Variance will happen to anyone who plays cards and player’s beliefs about it (and the corresponding emotion) can have a significant impact on their play and bottom line.  One way to help mitigate the impact of variance on my game is to think about it in more objective terms.  The better I can describe variance, the better I’ll be able to recognize it and defuse its impact on my decision-making.

In light of becoming better at describing variance, here are a couple of hands:

1.)    Hero on the button with Ad-10c
Folds around to hero who raises
SB calls, BB folds
Heads up, 2.5 big bets
Flop 8d-5h-2c
SB checks, hero bets, SB calls
Heads up, 3.5 big bets
Turn Ah
SB bets, hero calls all in (only $8 left behind)
SB shows A-K

2.)    Hero in cutoff with Jc-Jd
Two limpers, hero raises
Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, limpers call
Four players, 4  big bets
Flop 10c-8d-2d
Checks to hero who bets
BB calls, UTG +2 calls
Three players, 5.5 big bets
Turn 5h
Checks to hero who bets
Both villains call
Three players, 8.5 big bets
River  6d
Checks to hero who bets
Both villains call
BB shows 5d-6c
UTG +2 mucks

Hand number 2 I steamed over for some time.  In this hand I had an object for my distain.  The peel on the flop was absolutely terrible.  With no pair and no draw the pot wasn’t even close to being big enough for the miniscule odds for him to make a backdoor hand.  The call on the turn is equally horrible against two players with three overcards to his pair on board.  I may have been betting naked overcards but the other villain almost certainly called the flop with something and still had to act behind him!  Then, the crowning blunder is check-calling the river after making his hand.  I could have (probably should have) checked behind on the river, costing him $16 or he could have tried a check raise.

The bottom line is I steam for a while on these hands but then remind myself that it’s good that players make bad decisions in the long run; that is how decent players make money.  In the grand scheme, it’s good this player is sitting at my table, even if in the short run he caught some lucky cards and beat me.  Sure enough, by the end of the session this player had predictably bled off all his money and left the table broke.

My reaction to hand number 1 is a little more complicated.  In this hand there simply is no target for my anger. The bad guy in this hand is simply cold and impersonal probability.  It’s just a fact that when I raise a strong ace when it’s folded around to me in position, I’m going to run into a stronger ace in the blinds some percentage of the time.  No amount of my brilliant play or terrible play on the part of my opponents will change this.  There is no consolation like in hand number 2. 

When hands like number 1 happen (particularly when they repeatedly happen in the same session) my thoughts begin to wonder to superstition and impaired confidence.  These hands tweak my preexisting insecurities.  Like most people, I worry about my place in life, weather I work hard enough or deserve the benefits I enjoy.  I wonder sometimes if the success I’ve had in life is just some fluke and that eventually someone will find me out, discover I’m a fraud and things will tumble down.  Hands like number 1 make me doubt if my decision to play poker was flawed from the get go and trying to improve is simply flushing good money after bad.  I wonder if God or fate is trying to tell me that playing cards isn’t good for me and I need to quit.  After getting beaten up over and over in sessions like this, I leave worn out, exhausted and not looking forward to the next time I can play.

While my assessment is dismal, being able to articulate it helps a lot.  As soon as I can identify what’s happening and to speak (or write) about it clearly, the fuzzy thinking begins to dissipate.  What’s causing my frustration has nothing to do with the cards on the table, they simply are.  My tilt is caused by my flawed thinking about myself and my card playing.  To the extent that I can call out what’s going on I can change the channel, start focusing on the things I can have influence on and refine my decisions.

Miss the Flop?

Hand 1

Hero in BB with Ad-Qd
Three limpers, hero raises
Everyone calls
Four players, 4 big bets
Flop 5h-7s-8s
Hero bets
UTG +2 calls, button calls
Three players, 6.5  big bets
Turn 9s
Hero checks, UTG +2 bets
Button folds, hero folds.

Hand 2

Hero in cutoff with Ac-Jd
Two limpers, hero raises
BB calls, limpers call
Four players, 4 big bets
Flop Kd-8s-5s
Checks to hero who bets
BB calls, lowjack calls
Three players, 6.5 big bets
Turn Qh
Checks to hero who bets
BB calls
Heads up, 8.5 big bets
River 2s
BB checks, hero checks
BB shows 6d-5c, hero mucks

Hand 3

(Kill is on, stakes at 8/16) Hero on the button with QQ
Three limpers, hero raises
UTG +1 (on the kill) calls, everyone else calls
Four players, 4  big bets
Flop K-K-K
Check to hero who bets
UTG +1 calls, everyone else folds
Heads up, 5 big bets
Turn 5d
Villain checks
Hero bets, villain calls
Heads up, 7 big bets
River 7h
Villain checks
Hero bets, villain calls
Hero shows full house, villain mucks

These hands are all from the same session, a live 4/8 fixed limit game at a local card room.  The progression of these hands shows the trouble my opponents have with my strategy of pressing thin equity but tempered with good board texture reading.  The c-bet on hand 1 was probably a little too loose, I'm out of position and the board is too coordinated.  The prospects of my hand winning unimproved are too slim and I have too little fold equity to justify putting any more money in the pot, especially with a field of three players to get through.  Still, I felt it was worth a one-time shot and when a bad card comes on the turn, it's time to give up.

Hand 2 is frustrating.  I've got position this time and I'm bitching to myself about why I can't hit one cotton pickin' flop!  I can represent the K and there is loose coordination around the 8-5 with two to a suit so the calls don't bother me.  There's a good chance my A is even ahead.  The Q is a good card for me to barrel at and gives me a draw to the nuts.  The call tells me I'm against one of the legion of opponents I face who will never fold any pair.  My A has showdown value and villain is not calling with anything that doesn't beat me when the brick comes on the river.  So, no sense in firing a third barrel.

Hand 3 is that classic problem of flopping a monster, and now how do I get paid?  So many of my opponents will check this flop either trying to be tricky or too timid, worried about the case K.  However, my play prior to this hand has set up getting paid off perfectly.  There is no way I'm going to be given credit for the K (rightly so) when it's clear my preflop raising range is much bigger than A-K+.  My opponent knows I'm perfectly capable of betting down A high because he's seen me do it.  In his mind he has to call down with any pair or even A high hoping to at least chop.

It seems maddening missing flop after flop but if I can keep my cool and think about the game on a larger level, I can still profit.  Only part of the value of c-betting and barreling comes from fold equity and drawing out in a specific hand.  The only way I can get my big hands paid off is when I can capitalize on my opponents mistaken notion that I'm a maniac.  If I can make good board texture specific decisions my opponents will find ways to screw up against me.

Heaters

I’m sure you’ve seen them, I sure have.  The most remarkable I’ve witness was on my last trip to Las Vegas.  I was at the Orleans and a roly-poly, bespectacled older fellow sat across from me.  I could tell right away he was annoying because his wife grabbed a chair and sat behind him (Don’t you hate that?  Guys with girlfriends and wives with so little life of their own that they are willing to sit for hours and do nothing while their guy plays cards?).  Every few minutes this guy would lean backward into his wife who would snuggle him and pop some sort of treat in his mouth which he would chop wildly with his mouth wide open.  Seriously!  Like he was some sort of pit bull!  He had a thick accent (probably Mediterranean or a Spaniard) and was clearly known at the table, a regular.  Like most regulars that play low fixed limit, he was playing nearly every hand and his betting lines were passive and entirely conventional.  But, for some reason today, the poker gods where smiling on him.  What seemed like every hand this guy was showing up with monsters, full houses, flushes and quads at least twice.  Rack after rack our little super snacker was sending his wife to the cage for a color up.  He could not lose!  All’s the rest of us could do was look on with unconcealed disgust and envy as he would turn hands like 6-3 into an 18 big bet winning full house.

The remarkable thing about heaters is not so much the player that catches cards and makes strong hands.  All players do that from time to time.  The thing that makes them so extraordinary is making strong hands at PRECISELY the moment when one or two opponents make their strong (but second or third best) hand as well.  It’s rare to get pocket K’s, it’s even more rare to flop a set with them.  It’s astronomically rare to make a set of kings at precisely the moment when an opponent makes two pair or an under set.  Isn’t it almost always the case when you flop strong, bet and everyone either folds or you get only one caller who folds on the next street?

I have had lots of stints of running good.  I catch my normal frequency of starting hands (20-30%), about a third of those I connect with the board and about half to two thirds of those I end up winning the pot.  Only about one or two hands in a five hour session when I’m running good do I make big hands that get paid off.  My good sessions happen about one in eight or ten.   I do well in these sessions, usually doubling and sometimes tripling up my original buyin.  In my biggest session I quadrupled my buy in.  Much more common are grinding sessions when I get up one buyin and then get coolered once or twice and bleed back to a half buyin, then grind back up and bust back down again, always pivoting around that one or two buyin mark.

I have never had a monster, “can’t lose” session where I needed a wheelbarrow to get the chips to the cage and it’s got me wondering why.  Not that I’m whining and seething with injustice about why I never got my big heater.  I’m curious about the factors that influence the occurrence of these sessions and I’m pretty sure tight hand selection is one of the factors.

The hallmark of “running like God” is taking normally garbage starting hands and making monsters.  However, if I’m playing correct poker, even when I’m “running good” I still don’t play hands like 9-5 off suit.  So, those one or two sessions when I walked away with 4 buyins I was still only playing maybe 30% of my starting hand range.  This is contrary to nearly all my opponents who convince themselves they are in the middle of a supernatural event when the run good and start playing normally losing starting hands.  One time in 400 they may “get it right” and have a legendary session.  They imagine that “you never know” when one of these streaks may hit so whenever they win a few pots they talk themselves into thinking a heater is starting.  Having a monster session and witnessing other players having one only reinforces this squishy thinking.  The trouble is 399 times they will get it wrong and predictably lose their meager winnings right back.  In fact, those 399 times they lose so much they never get out of that hole.  Even the monster muncher guy and his little zoo keeper wife and their huge winnings that session I witnessed will make up only a few percentage points of all the losses that came before.  His fate was sealed not when the poker god’s smiled but when he decided 10-4 off suit was a hand he could win with.

By playing half or less of my starting hands compared to my opponents I may be curtailing the size of any monster sessions I may have (or more correctly moving the frequency from 1 in 300 to one in a thousand) but I’m also protecting the winnings I make FAR more frequently.  In sessions when I grind out a half a buyin, if my opponents played the exact same session, would have lost 2 buyins.

Honestly, it is tough to fold hand after hand only to watch a whale of player stacking mountains of chips making quads with 7-2.  The only consolation is the advertising value of such sessions.  My opponents see these heaters and are encouraged that they will be the next recipients of the smiling poker god’s manna and keep right on playing their horrible strategy.

It's a Mistake!

The casino was new to me.  I hadn’t played there before or even noticed it on the few drives I’ve been by on the freeway.  It’s pretty much the same sort of dumpy surroundings most of the card clubs in my area.  Our indian casinos are a step up but going to the same haunts over and over is tedious and the stakes and game offerings aren’t always optimal.  What I was interested in with this new establishment was the possibility of a soft fixed limit game in stakes that are a little higher than what I normally play, specifically $8/16.

There is an 8/16 game at a card room much closer to where I live but the action there is very erratic.  The normal 4/8 games I play in (and consistently beat) the action is very homogenous.  Almost all my opponents in those games are loose-passive.  They play way too many hands, they check and call instead of bet and raise and are just content to sit back and try to make hands.  These players have a faint understanding of hand reading but absolutely do not have any thinking by way of equity when they play.  They call down in spots with very small pot odds for the amount of equity they have and they fail to press in situations when they have odds and decent equity.  Generally, these games are very profitable to play in because opponents are so predictable.  The occasional aggressive player that sits down (even fairly decent ones) are seldom a problem either because all the loose-passive regulars pay off so well over and over.

The 8/16 game at my local card room is often not like this.  Often there are several aggressive players in these games, which has two results.  The first is that the aggressive action builds big pots so variance goes up.  Winning sessions are big but so are losing sessions and loses can mushroom FAST.  At 8/16 you can drop $600 within a half an hour easily.  The second issue is hand reading.  Aggressive players are much less predictable.  Typically, bad players stay bad but as they move up in stakes they become more aggressive.  In my games this means 8/16 player still play a very weak hand selection range.  These folks have learned enough to know that aggressive play is correct play but never got the memo that tight hand selection is a prerequisite.

The result is a game that feels like a knife fight on a tightrope.  A lot of pressure is put on your post flop game to read board texture and assign hand ranges to opponents.  Failing to do this can result in loosing big pots but more importantly will result in missed value.  The few extra bets you pick up in these game matter, A LOT.  Because loses can mount so quickly in these games, you need to pick up extra bets here and there to survive.

As I sat down to an 8/16 game at this new casino the terrible hand selection became apparent quickly.  Hands as bad as 5-7 off suit where common.  I was also reassured to see passive play, lots of open limping, lots of multiway pots.  My troubles started with a lot of stuff I had little control over.  Spots where I raised preflop, hit top pair but caught terrible on the turn and/or river.  I’m getting better at recognizing variance and not letting it get to me.  However, there were several spots I could have lost a lot less.  Missing the flop and c-betting into four and five players (often out of position) with two high cards on board and often betting the turn, too unimproved.  But, the biggest mistake I made highlights the issue above.

A grumpy and aggressive player raised preflop in middle position.  There were several callers and I woke up with pocket 10’s in the small blind.  I three bet and grumpy called along with four other calling stations.  The flop came A-K-Q rainbow and I bet.  One caller and grumpy raised.  One caller in between and it was one small bet back to me.  I had odds to draw to my set or straight so I called.  A J came on the turn giving me the nuts and so I bet out again.  Grumpy raised again and it came to heads up with one big bet back to me.  The worst that can happen in this hand at this point is a chop.  I have nothing to lose by raise and capping.  The board could pair on the river and I could lose to a full house but that isn’t likely.  So, what did I do?  Like a little mouse I called…  And, ever worse, when a brick 3 came on the river I CHECKED!  Grumpy checked behind, I showed my straight and he mucked disgustingly.

As bad as I played this hand it did start a nice little run of cards for me and I made it in to positive territory for the session.  But, (as often happens) I bled off a lot and finally two or three bad beats hit and I was felted.  I sure could have used that extra roughly $32 I missed on the above hand to try and play the extra hour or so that I had for the day.  Doing so would have given me a chance to salvage the session.  But, because I had failed to think my way through that earlier hand I had reached my stop loss and had to leave.

I’m not exactly sure what was going on in my head with my passive play with grumpy.  Maybe it was the new surroundings or how cold it was in that room (I was wearing my winter coat!).  Mostly, I guess I had a little confidence crisis.  I don’t have a good record with trying to move up in stakes.  My poor perforce is also mixed with the gradual realization that trying to grind at 4/8 is a real slog.  Showing only $5 or $6 an hour for my time isn’t what I would call productive.  This jibes with what I’ve read from fixed limit pros that because of the rake, you need to move up in stakes as quickly as you can.  I also have recently made plans to go to Las Vegas during the World Series and would really like a nice run to boost my bankroll before I go.  Feeling the pressure of these things caused me to freeze up perhaps.

While it’s no fun making mistakes (especially ones I know I shouldn’t be making) they are a part of playing the game.  By putting so much pressure on myself to not make mistakes I’m basically assuring the fact that I’ll make them and that they are more costly than they should be.  If I can relax some of my expectations and just focus on one hand at a time I can do myself a favor.

Annoying the Regulars

Hero in cutoff with Ad-6d
Two limpers, hero calls
Button calls, small blind completes, big blind checks
Six players, 3 big bets
Flop Kd-8s-9d
One limper bets, hero raises
Button folds, sb folds
Big blind calls, limper calls
Three players, 9 big bets
Turn 2c
Checks to hero who bets

One of the regulars I play a lot with was complaining about players who raise in position on the flop going for a free card play.  He thought it was a terrible play and wastes a lot of money.  His thinking was that betting on the come is a losing play because draws so seldom hit.  Furthermore, so many players try the free card play it’s almost a given if there are two cards to a suit on the flop.  He thinks the play is annoying and transparent.  I told him I agree with him, that a free card play is annoying and transparent.  I also told him that’s why I keep coming on the turn when I DO bet on the come.  I told him it’s true that draws brick out more often than not but that only means that I need to maximize my equity when they do.  Especially if a pot is multi way, I’m going to raise and cap on the flop.  I do this to because I have an equity edge if it’s three ways or more (36%) and because I have to make up for all those times I missed my draws.

The transparency problem is the reason I keep coming on the turn.  I expose my hand with a check the turn after raising on the flop.  Now, my opponents will bet almost any non-flush card on the river fairly certain I’ll fold.  Also, when I go bet-bet after the flop I preserve fold equity.  Let’s say the Qc comes on the turn instead of the deuce.  I bet and get called in one spot.  A J comes on the river, what’s my opponent going to think of his 7-8 given my raise on the flop.  Getting 12:1 on my bluff the number of times he has to fold is microscopic (compared to the size of the pot) to make this line profitable.

My regular friend just shook his head.  He has played cards for many years and is just convinced he has nothing new to learn.  The truth is he enjoys a very passive, low variance style of play where he shows positive EV but is pretty much a waste of time given the number of hours he logs.  However, the comp points and the freeroll tournament he qualifies for every month are more than enough (in his mind) to make up.  The only fly in the ointment is when a player like me sits down and starts charging him an extra small bet for every flop he wants to see.  I guess I’d be pretty annoyed too.