Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Whoa! Back it up!

One of the concepts I’ve been working on with reading board texture is reverse implied odds.  Implied odds, you may know, are the extra bets you can add to pot odds when considering continuing in a hand with a draw.  Gut shot straight draws are a good example.  If there are three of four players in a hand and I have a got shot draw, the pot as it is on the flop is probably not big enough to justify me drawing to only four outs.  But, having to pay only one small bet (another benefit to playing in position) with the expectation of getting two or three more big bets on the next two streets and adding those to the pot will push my odds over the threshold.
Reverse implied odds come into play when considering what my opponents may be drawing to and the equity they have in the hand with their draw.  The concept is especially important when “dirty” outs come into play.  A good portion of the time, cards that come on the turn and rive may make my hand but may make my opponents stronger hand.  Here’s an example.
Hero in cutoff with Ad-Js
Three limpers, hero raises
Big Blind calls, all limpers call
Five players, 5 big bets
Flop 9s-10d-Qd
This flop hits all kinds of hands but what’s most concerning is thatmy outs are likely dirty.  Straight and flush draws all have significant equity against me and even if my A is currently ahead I have very little equity because these draws hit so often.  I have terrible reverse implied odds. 6 and 7 are bad cards and probably the worst card would also make my hand, the J.  Even if I hit my A I’m still not super in love with my hand as KJ is crushing me and I’m also vulnerable to my opponent’s two pair hands.  So, while I do have an open ended draw, It’s probably not worth continuing to bet at this pot as my opponents aren’t going anywhere and half my straight outs are likely dirty as well.
Highly coordinated flops that don’t hit you are not worth barreling on and reverse implied odds are the reason.  

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