Weak Leads

A weak lead (AKA donk bet, probing bet, etc) is a very common strategy I see quite frequently with my opponents.  Often I’ll see it after a preflop raise when the flop comes out small and dry.  There are a lot of reasons people do this but I think it mainly comes down to the fact that folks don’t like to check-call.  In other words, players will flop a middling hand they think isn’t strong enough to check-raise but they don’t want to get bet off their hand.  They also don’t feel like  their hand is strong enough to call a half pot sized bet or bigger, she they split the difference and bet out a small amount, hoping the preflop raiser will just call (or maybe fold) and they can see a cheap turn.

The problem with this strategy is that a.) it’s very transparent and b.) it leaves you out of position with no clear path forward for the rest of the hand.  Here’s an example:

3-20 live spread limit, stacks all about $100
Hero on the button with Kd-Qh
Three limpers, hero raises to $12
Blinds fold, everyone else calls
Four players, Pot $52
Flop 10d-9d-3h
Two limpers check villain bets $10
Hero raises to $20
Limpers fold, villain calls
Heads up, Pot $92
Turn 5s
Villain checks
Hero bets $20
Villain hesitates, shows 10h and folds

Ed Miller talks about regular players in low to mid stakes games almost universally play too many hands.  Their general strategy is see lots of flops as cheaply as possible, hit big and find some poor sucker to stack.  What ends up happening the VAST majority of the time is that they flop middling or weak and they end up calling down light or folding way too frequently.  Weak leads are a direct symptom of this poor strategy.  Villain probably limped in with 10-rag suited and lead out weakly trying to feel his way through this hand.  His hand couldn’t stand a big turn bet.  From my perspective the weak lead could only mean a hand not strong enough to check-raise and inviting me to bluff (small pair or top pair weak kicker).  I also wasn’t cold bluffing with my gut shot, overcards and backdoor draw.  With 10 outs I’m darn close to a coin flip on the flop against a pair (and even better with some fold equity mixed in).  Trying to understand the meaning of opponents play and how it relates to their overall strategy has helped my play immensely.