Range and Swing Hands

You know the scenario.  Strong hand preflop and you raise and suddenly you find yourself in a war.  Then, to top it off, the flop comes super scary and didn’t hit you at all.  So many times this has happened to me and my first inclination is the nearest exit.  The important thing about reading flop texture is determining where my hand falls in relative strength, no doubt.  But, an equally important and often missed aspect is determining the range of hands my opponents could have.  NOT the specific hands, but their range.  Ed has taught me start thinking in terms of targeting the hands that opponents could have and less about what hands are beating me.  Here’s an example:

Live 2-20 spread limit.  Stacks are deep, over $100
Hero in Low Jack with Qs-Qh
UTG +1 raises to $8
Hero 3-bets to $28
High jack caps at $48
Big blinds calls
UTG +1 calls
Hero calls
Four players, $195
Flop Ks-Kh-7h
Checks to HJ who bets $20
UTG +1 calls, Hero raises to $40
Both villains call
Three players, $312
Turn 5c
Checks to hero who bets $20
Both villains call
Three players, $372
River 6d
Checks to hero who bets $20
HJ thinks, calls, UTG +1 folds
Hero shows QQ, villain mucks

So, nightmare flop, right?  In the past my first thought would be to find the next opportunity to fold but Ed has taught me to stop and think for a second.  This flop is very polarizing.  My opponents either have me crushed or are very far behind.  Obviously, pocket K’s are beating me to the pot, so I can’t worry about that hand (and how incredibly unlikely flopped quads are).  With preflop action it’s very unlikely either opponent has K-Q (especially since I have 2 queens) down to K-10.  That leaves only one hand, A-K, to really worry about.  So, what other hands could my opponents be playing and where does my hand fit in with them?  The big question is, as always, can I get better hands to fold or worse hands to call?

AA is a distinct possibility of a hand I’m up against given the action, as well as QQ.  These are hands that I am targeting with my flop check-raise.  It is unlikely opponents would fold these hands but if they did it would be because they thought I had a K which is reasonable to represent with this betting line.  This pot is big and it’s worth going after.  The small chance that my opponents would fold these pocket pairs is worth the risk of this line (check-raise, bet, bet $80 to win more than $200).  New information I would look for to change my thinking would be a raise on the turn, which didn’t happen.  When betting to get better hands to fold, Ed taught me the best way is with at least some equity.  If by chance I can’t get a fold from AA (or even a king), I have two queens and running hearts to luck out with.

There is also the distinct possibility of opponents calling with worse hands.  JJ, A-Q, Ah-Jh, even 10-10 or 9-9.  Heart and straight draws are also possible. In targeting these hands my betting line is for value.

The answer to the all-important question is both.  My betting line to get weaker hands to call AND to get better hands to fold along with at least some possibility of drawing out.  Thinking in terms of a range of hands and especially the target or “swing” hands that my opponents could have is how to proceed.  On polarized flops like this if my opponent has the nightmare hand nothing I do can will make any difference in what happens (i.e. losing) and I’ll find out soon enough.  Focus on what hands my opponents might have and it makes a difference what I do.