More on Connectors

When caught in stretch of card death it can often be tempting to play small one or even two gap connectors.  Nearly all of my opponents are playing hands like 6-8 and 7-5 so when I enter my second hour without a whiff of a playable hand and look down to see 8c-10c the urge to limp and try and see a cheap flop can be pretty overwhelming (suitedness notwithstanding as suited cards will give 2 or 3% bump in equity which can be significant if a hand is four or five ways). My previous post talked a bit about the perils of playing small connected cards but what about gappers?  Are they significantly worse to play compared to “zero” gap?

Here’s a quick analysis I did comparing one gap and no gap connectors:

7-5

4-6-8 (nuts)
3-4-6 (nuts)
6-8-9 (not nuts, 7-10 beats)

6-8-x (9 could be dirty, counts as six outs)
6-4-x (eight full outs)

7-8

4-5-6 (nuts)
5-6-9 (nuts)
6-9-10 (nuts)
9-10-J (not nuts, 8-Q and Q-K beat)

5-6-x (eight full outs)
6-9-x (eight full outs)
9-10-x (J could be dirty, six outs)

The zero-gap connector allows for four flopped straights, three of which are the nuts (barring a flush or someone drawing out) while the one-gap gives only three with just two being the nuts. So, the zero-gap connectors are clearly superior in terms of chances of a gin flop.  What’s much more common is flopping a draw.  When determining betting decisions you have to account for “dirty outs.”  Essentially, if an out card comes on the turn or river to make my hand but that card could also make my opponent’s stronger hand, I can’t count that as a full out. I have to discount that card by counting it as only a half an out.  In any given straight draw you normally have eight outs giving you about 33% equity.  This is a strong hand and gives a significant edge if the hand is three or four ways.  The zero-gap connector has three draws, two of which have eight full outs.  The one-gap connector only has two draws, just one of which gives eight full outs.  With two out cards being potentially dirty we can only get six outs giving us about 24% equity.  Unless the pot is very large or there are five or more players in the hand, we don’t have odds to continue.

From this analysis we can see that connected cards are clearly superior to in both made hands and draws to gapped connectors.  Reminding myself of this fact will help me to put that 8-10 where it belongs, in the muck.

Small Suited Connectors

Small suited connectors (2-3 to 8-9) are good to play in low fixed limit games because they have a very good post flop strategic advantage.  These hand s have very little pre-flop pot equity.   They almost never win unimproved, so it makes little sense to raise before seeing the flop.  But, when the flop does come down it pretty easy to know what to do with these hands, right?  Small suited connectors are often lumped together with small pocket pairs for this reason, poor pot equity but good post flop strategic advantage.  With pocket 5’s it’s pretty clear what to do when the flop comes down A-Q-3 and faced with a bet.  You have only two outs and the pot would have to be HUGE to peel even one card.  Even when the flop comes 7-4-2 and it’s back to you in middle position with a bet from the button and a call in between and one player left to act behind you, it’s not a bad play to go ahead and fold.  So many bad things can happen on a board like this.  Even if you make your hand and a 5 comes on the turn or river, you may not be good because of the straight.  So, even though there’s a decent chance your fives are best, it’s probably right to go ahead and fold.

But, let’s say the same flop comes and you now have a suited 7-8 of diamonds with one diamond on board.  Now the hand has becomes a lot more complicated.  This is the reason why I don’t think small suited connectors should be in the same category as small pocket pairs.  The reason we like playing small suited connectors is it’s supposed to be easy to know what to do on the flop.  When we hit, we hit hard and the hand plays itself.  When we miss, it’s easy to get away from the hand.  But, that’s not the case now.  Now, we have a very vulnerable top pair that we need to bet to protect, but do we?  If there are three or more players making it one small bet to go will not encourage anyone with a gut shot to go anywhere.  Even middle and bottom pair is likely sticking around hoping to improve.   So, a bet does nothing to protect but what about value?  Our hand as razor thin value because so many overcards can come and with three players or more, open-enders even have us beat.

On the above hand we can check the flop and see if the button or any other late player bets.  If the bet comes we have to carefully evaluate if the player is capable of taking a stab with a weak holding.  Raising in this spot might give us a smidge of folding equity but puts us on a tightrope.  Guess right and we can take down the pot on the turn when a brick or scare card comes.  Guess wrong and we can lose a big pot.

This discussion brings to light the trouble that small suited connectors pose that muddy their alleged post flop strategic advantage.  By far the most likely improvement of any hand in hold’em is making one pair.  So, when holding 7-6 and the board comes K-Q-6 that’s really no problem.  But, if it comes 7-2-3, now our world has become a lot more uncertain.  Playing small suited connectors put a lot of pressure on your post flop game.  Understanding that fact and being ready to try and find your way through the forest is the way to go.  Otherwise, be content to play big pot equity hands and pocket pairs that make decisions much easier.