Smallish Pocket Pairs

Pocket pairs from 5’s to 8’s I have often played in set mining mode.  I’ve called one or even two raises hoping to hit my set on the flop and scoop a big pot.  I’ve been willing to forego a small bit of equity (folding or just plain value) for the benefit of a usually small initial investment.  Occasionally, these hands will hit big such as a flop like K-Q-6 while I’m holding pocket 6’s with a preflop raiser.  Even better is when I fill up with a flush or straight on board.  But, I’ve reconsidered this strategy recently and elected to take a more aggressive line that increases my short term variance but will net me more money in the long run.

The important element in my analysis has to do with how often those big hands come around when I not only hit my set (one time in eight) but the board also hits my opponents strongly enough to get paid off big.  Considering every flop will miss any random hand 2 out of three times, the math doesn’t look hopeful.  In fact, those two factors happening together doesn’t make up for the initial investment of limping and calling with these hands.  So, where can I make up the difference?  I think the answer is in thin value and folding equity.

About as often as I make my set AND the board hits my opponent a hand like pocket 6’s may win unimproved or (if played aggressively) may get a better hand to fold.  Example 1.) I raise in cutoff with 6-6 and only the big blind calls holding 6-7.  I the flop comes 7-J-2.  It checks to me and I bet.  The turn is a K, I bet and BB thinks about it and calls.  The river is an A, checks to me and I bet.  There are 5 big bets in the pot, so my opponent has to fold only 1 time in 6 to make this play profitable. Chances are he’s not going to think much of his 7’s.  This is fold equity that I have been missing by not playing my hands aggressively.

Example 2.) Say I have 5-5 and raise on the button.  The flop comes Q-9-7.  The big blind and cutoff called my preflop raise and both check to me on the flop.  I bet and both call.  The turn is a 2.  It checks to me and I bet, both call again.  On a board like this what could be calling me.  Well, possibly a Q or 9 but what about all the other hands.  There are so many straight draws with a flop like this, hands like J-10 and 8, 8-6 and 5, K-J, 5-6, 10-8 so many that will call all the way to the river and just end up folding when they brick out.  The same for two and three cards to a suit.  Much the same as the previous bluffing hand, these drawing hands will spike a pair, call the river and win.  They also will sometimes make their draw.  But given the odds with two callers, they only have to brick out and fold 1 time in 8 for this line to be profitable.

Example 3.) is when a pocket pair wins unimproved.  I have 7-7 in middle position and raise.  I’m called by the button and big blind.  The flop comes 6-3-J.  BB checks to me, I bet and am called by button and BB.  Turn is a 5.  Not a great card for me but it checks to me again and I bet and called in both spots again.  The river is a Q.  That card scares me a bit so I check behind when it’s check to me planning to make a crying call when button bets.  To my surprise he checks as well and shows 6-7 suited.  Big blind mucks and I scoop the pot. 

In the last example had I played in set mining mode I would have missed my set on the flop, checked and almost certainly the button would have bet, thinking his 6’s were good.  I would have been left thinking that I was only drawing to 2 outs with a tiny pot and would have (correctly) folded.  In example 2 a hand like this might check down and I could win but only a tiny pot and I would be vulnerable to a bluff by one of the broken draws.  In example 1 it’s very clear that I am not winning without an aggressive line.

Adding in all this missing equity along with the times I do hit my set make playing smaller pocket pairs aggressively a winning play.  On any one individual hand I may lose more then if I would have taken a more passive line but the rewards long term are greater.  Essentially, I’m risking 1 to win about 1.5 when I take an aggressive line and about breaking even with the passive set mining approach.  Accounting for the rake, when you break even in this game, you are losing money.