Promotions and Bad Play

One of the things I see a lot in my local card rooms are players who change their strategy in hopes of winning a promotional jackpot.  Many card rooms have a jackpot drop in addition to the rake.  One or two dollars is taken from every pot and put into a pool of money.  Card room management then comes up with contests to award this money to players.  One of the most common contests is a so called “Bad Beat.”  A particular strong hand (such as Aces full of Jacks) is named by the card room management and if that hand is beat a chunk of that jackpot pool is awarded.  Typically, with the Bad Beat, half is given to the looser of the hand, a quarter to the winner and the remaining is shared with the other players at the table.

A more common promotion is the “high hand” (or “Monte Carlo” in my area).  Big hands like four-of-a-kind (“quads”) or straight flushes are awarded bonuses from the jackpot pool above what they win from the pot.  Usually, there are rules associated with these bonuses.  A minimum number players must be in a hand, a minimum dollar amount must be in the pot (enough for the jackpot drop to be raked from the pot) and both hole cards must be used to make the player’s hand.

There are good and bad points to this bonus system.  The primary reason any card room uses them is to draw players in.  This is an obvious benefit.  The more players in a room the more action, the more action the more possibility of profit.  Another benefit is the potential for remediation of the rake.  As I’ve discussed earlier, at low stakes the rake a room takes represents a large percentage of the overall take for a winning player.  Winning a promotional jackpot once every six weeks or so can go a long way to recouping some of that lost money.

A significant drawback to promotions has to do with philosophy and influence over players decisions.  Philosophically, many advanced players object to promotions because they believe it arbitrarily rewards players based on chance, not on correct play.  They resent being made to pay a dollar or two out of every pot they win and given to other players who are simply lucky enough to be dealt a big hand.  Poker is expensive enough, they argue, having to play blinds and room rake.  The redistribution argument aside, the math may be on their side.  The cumulative amount a player pays in jackpot drop may be more (in the long run) than the potential winnings from a promotion depending on how a particular card room structures their bonus system.

A bigger issue, in my opinion, has to do with the influence promotions have on poker decissions players make.  An example is when players in the blinds collude to try and hit a jackpot.  Often, as a courtesy, the two players in the blinds will take back (i.e. “chop”) their blinds and fold their hands preflop if action is folded around to them.  The courtesy is extended to the table to get a hand over with that seldom has much potential for profit and get on with the game.  Most of the players I play with employ this “chop” courtesy.  Some don’t and want to play blind vs. blind.  In my opinion, either is fine so long as a player is consistent and understands their options.  Where promotions complicate this is when a player in the blind has suited connectors or a pocket pair and wants to try for a jackpot.  Often this confusing exception is employed and players will check down the hand in a hopeless attempt.  Not only is this technically a rule violation and even if the player hits a jackpot should not be awarded the money, but it’s a waste of time.  If two or three of these situations arise in a game an hour that could potentially be one less hand.  Six hands a session over the course of a year adds up fast and potentially robs players of opportunity.

Another situation I’ve commonly seen is when players slow play trying to hit a promotion.  Say for example a player has a pocket pair and makes a set on the flop.  A poker room has a promotion paying $50 for quads.  So many times I’ve seen players check and call with these hands hoping for their case card and win the jackpot.  They fear if they play aggressively that opponents will fold and they won’t see the turn or river and miss out on their chance.  These players fail to take into consideration the equity they are sacrificing and the potential reward.  The case card for a set on the flop to make quads by the river will come 1 time in 25.  The 24 other times a player misses his quads around 36 big bets in total are missed by slow playing.  Since a set does get beat around 20% of the time we can discount this amount to about 30 big bets.  So, even at the small 3/6 stakes fixed limit games I play in that’s $180 in missed profit, ALL FOR A $50 JACKPOT!

An often missed aspect of this issue is the impact on the action at the table.  An example would be if I had an open ended straight draw in the above example with my opponent making a set on the flop.  The other player in the hand has a gut shot draw to a higher straight.  So, unbeknownst to me four of my outs are “dirty” and would make my hand but also the third opponent’s better hand.  I would bet and/or raise this hand on the flop but the opponent with the set (hoping to hit his quads and $50 promotion) is just calling.  Had the set owner raised or re-raised correctly (given the strength of his hand) the gut shot opponent would not have been given odds to chase his draw and folded or mistakenly put the money in anyway.  Now my “dirty” straight card comes and the set holder not only loses his hand but I get beat too.  Or, my “clean” out card hits and I get less money than I should have because the gut shot opponent wasn’t given the opportunity to make his mistake.

The bottom line is that promotions (love ‘em or hate ‘em) are a big part of most card rooms.  Players are well advised to be aware of them, learn the rules that govern them and understand how they can impact play at the tables.

Smallish Pocket Pairs

Pocket pairs from 5’s to 8’s I have often played in set mining mode.  I’ve called one or even two raises hoping to hit my set on the flop and scoop a big pot.  I’ve been willing to forego a small bit of equity (folding or just plain value) for the benefit of a usually small initial investment.  Occasionally, these hands will hit big such as a flop like K-Q-6 while I’m holding pocket 6’s with a preflop raiser.  Even better is when I fill up with a flush or straight on board.  But, I’ve reconsidered this strategy recently and elected to take a more aggressive line that increases my short term variance but will net me more money in the long run.

The important element in my analysis has to do with how often those big hands come around when I not only hit my set (one time in eight) but the board also hits my opponents strongly enough to get paid off big.  Considering every flop will miss any random hand 2 out of three times, the math doesn’t look hopeful.  In fact, those two factors happening together doesn’t make up for the initial investment of limping and calling with these hands.  So, where can I make up the difference?  I think the answer is in thin value and folding equity.

About as often as I make my set AND the board hits my opponent a hand like pocket 6’s may win unimproved or (if played aggressively) may get a better hand to fold.  Example 1.) I raise in cutoff with 6-6 and only the big blind calls holding 6-7.  I the flop comes 7-J-2.  It checks to me and I bet.  The turn is a K, I bet and BB thinks about it and calls.  The river is an A, checks to me and I bet.  There are 5 big bets in the pot, so my opponent has to fold only 1 time in 6 to make this play profitable. Chances are he’s not going to think much of his 7’s.  This is fold equity that I have been missing by not playing my hands aggressively.

Example 2.) Say I have 5-5 and raise on the button.  The flop comes Q-9-7.  The big blind and cutoff called my preflop raise and both check to me on the flop.  I bet and both call.  The turn is a 2.  It checks to me and I bet, both call again.  On a board like this what could be calling me.  Well, possibly a Q or 9 but what about all the other hands.  There are so many straight draws with a flop like this, hands like J-10 and 8, 8-6 and 5, K-J, 5-6, 10-8 so many that will call all the way to the river and just end up folding when they brick out.  The same for two and three cards to a suit.  Much the same as the previous bluffing hand, these drawing hands will spike a pair, call the river and win.  They also will sometimes make their draw.  But given the odds with two callers, they only have to brick out and fold 1 time in 8 for this line to be profitable.

Example 3.) is when a pocket pair wins unimproved.  I have 7-7 in middle position and raise.  I’m called by the button and big blind.  The flop comes 6-3-J.  BB checks to me, I bet and am called by button and BB.  Turn is a 5.  Not a great card for me but it checks to me again and I bet and called in both spots again.  The river is a Q.  That card scares me a bit so I check behind when it’s check to me planning to make a crying call when button bets.  To my surprise he checks as well and shows 6-7 suited.  Big blind mucks and I scoop the pot. 

In the last example had I played in set mining mode I would have missed my set on the flop, checked and almost certainly the button would have bet, thinking his 6’s were good.  I would have been left thinking that I was only drawing to 2 outs with a tiny pot and would have (correctly) folded.  In example 2 a hand like this might check down and I could win but only a tiny pot and I would be vulnerable to a bluff by one of the broken draws.  In example 1 it’s very clear that I am not winning without an aggressive line.

Adding in all this missing equity along with the times I do hit my set make playing smaller pocket pairs aggressively a winning play.  On any one individual hand I may lose more then if I would have taken a more passive line but the rewards long term are greater.  Essentially, I’m risking 1 to win about 1.5 when I take an aggressive line and about breaking even with the passive set mining approach.  Accounting for the rake, when you break even in this game, you are losing money.