Update

I crossed the 400 hour mark last night and should be able to make 500 by the end of the year.  The good news is I am holding steady at about 1 big bet per hour win rate.  Barring some catastrophic downswing, I should be able to make my goal of sustaining my win rate past the 500 hour mark.  I think it’s safe to say the meteoric rise of my win rate in the early stages of my tracking, (around March and April) was probably due to variance.  The passive, rockish style I was playing shouldn’t have yielded the 1.5 bbph I was enjoying.  Now that I’ve improved my game and probability has caught up with me I’ve settled in to a more sustainable figure.  Also, I think it’s safe to say that if I subtracted out the disastrous misadventures I’ve taken into higher limits, my win rate trend would be even more encouraging.

One of the things in playing a more aggressive style has done is increased my variance.  While I’ve been able to sustain my win rate, my standard deviation has risen dramatically from the mid 9’s to now over 12.2 bbph.  I’m having fewer sessions where I’m winning or loosing around $40 or less.  When I loose, I’m loosing around $1-200.  My winning sessions are about the same.  Even though I suffered a pretty bad downswing last month, I still have ended up cashing in 12 of my last 21 sessions.  July saw me just barely creep over the winning mark for the month (by only $35).  Fortunately, August is shaping up better; solidly in winning territory so far.  I’m planning on about three or four more sessions to close out the month.  If I cash big in one session or small in at least two, I’ll be OK.