An Expert in Value City

One of the things that separates the good from the expert players in poker is finding extra value bets.  Conventional wisdom is with a medium strength hand when checked to on the river a check behind is the best play because you will only be called by a better hand.  Experts understand that hard and fast rules are seldom applicable at the table and in the long run forming habits can cost a player a lot of money.  Reading board texture and understanding your opponent’s range of hands should always guide decisions about betting.  A hand I played recently went like this:

Hero in Highjack with Jc-10c

UTG +2 limps

Hero raises

SB calls

BB calls

UTG +2 calls

Four players, 8 small bets

Flop Js-10d-2h

SB checks

BB bets

UTG + 2calls

Hero raises

SB folds

BB calls

UTG + 2 calls

Three players, 14 small bets

Turn 9c

BB checks

UTG + 2 checks

Hero bets

BB folds

UTG + 2 calls

Two players 9 big bets

River 3h

UTG + 2 checks

Read on UTG + 2 is an older retiree, beyond a regular and more of a fixture at this room; a weak-tight player who seldom bets unless very strong. He is capable of check-raising with the nuts. He often calls down with top pair, which is what I had him on; top pair strong kicker or possibly a straight draw.

Hands that are beating me here are K-Q, Q-8, 7-8, J’s, 10’s, 2’s or 9’s.  Hands I’m beating are any J-x, 10-x, A-K, A-Q, 9-x, Q-x, K-x, A-x all are within the realm of possibilities my opponent might call down with.  The majority of the hands I’m beating are also likely hands he would (and should) call on the river with.

Two pair is the average winning hand in poker.  Over and over again I’ve seen players (including myself) check behind in this spot and be content to win the pot and forego a value bet.  The thinking being that with a possible straight on board and the inherent averageness of 2-pair, “I’m only getting called by a better hand.”  An expert player will be able to do the above analysis of the range of hands my opponent could have and will call with.  Heads up on the river the criteria for betting is I need to be ahead of a little better than half my opponent's range (better than half because I could get raised).  I am beating well above 50% of my opponent's range so it is correct to bet on the river expecting to get called by a worse hand.

If you are curious, I in fact did not bet the river and checked behind.  I turned over my top two pair and my opponent did indeed show A-J.