Bonehead Play

I got clobbered in a hand last night that was probably the difference between a winning and loosing session for me. Here’s how it went down.

I was in the cutoff with AJ suited, three players limped and I called and the button and blinds called.  The flop came A-K-5 rainbow.  It checked to a loose aggressive guy who bet, a weak-tight player next to him called and I raised.  It folded back to LAG guy who called and weak-tight called.  The turn was a J.  LAG guy bet out (a donk bet) and weak-tight RAISED!

Now, I took some time thinking what all this meant but didn’t do the analysis I need to (more on that later).  My gut reaction was that weak-tight had been folding hands over and over all night and was basically going the way of Broomcorn’s uncle.  I should have been afraid of his raise, VERY AFRAID!  I went to fold my hand but then did a quick assessment of how much money was in the pot, what my chances of making a full house would be and noted he only had about $9 behind.  Ultimately, I talked myself into a call and pushed $16 into the pot.  The river was a blank.  LAG guy checked, weak-tight bet, I called but then LAG check-raised.  Weak-tight called and I mucked.  Here is the conversation I should have had with myself when faced with the turn raise:

“I can discount the very top range of LAG guy’s holdings like AA, JJ and KK because he has been raising pre flop quite a bit.  That leaves Q-10, A-K and 5-5 that are beating me.  Obviously, A-J I’m chopping.  Now, there is a whole BUNCH of other possible hands he could be playing like this A-Q, A-X, A-5, K-X, K-5, K-J, K-Q, J-X, J-5, QQ, 10-10 that I’m crushing.  So, I’m liking my flop raise and the turn donk is a typical sign of weakness from a player like this.  BUT, here comes Mr. Weak-tight!  His turn raise can only mean one of two hands, a set or Q-10 for Broadway, both are blowing me away.  There’s no way I’m good now, the A’s are probably dirty outs, leaving me drawing to two slim J’s.  There is no way I should be calling his turn raise.”

I tell ya, when I can get to the point where I’m more focused on my opponents potential holdings instead of what I’ve got or could be drawing to, I’m going to be one dangerous poker player!!