Set Mining

I just finished reading one of the books by my friend, Dr. Bart Gratt, How to Become a Successful Professional Poker Player.  In it he describes a simple form of approaching no limit cash games.  He suggests only playing pocket pairs and AK.  You can call a pre flop raise if getting better than 8:1 implied odds (you need to pay attention to stack sizes) but no calling pre flop shoves.  If you don't make your hand on the flop, pitch it.  Even with hands as strong as AA.  If making a set on the flop you just call down, no big bets, no all-in shoves.

Bart suggests that to keep a table on it's toes you can switch gears on the button every 3 or 4 orbits.  Here pre flop raises and aggressive continuation bets are OK with hands as trashy as suited A's or off suit paint cards.  If you get a caller all the way to the river and you are unimproved, you can check-fold.

After looking around on line a bit, I discovered this style of play is called "Set Mining."  The math is very sound.  Each time you have a pocket pair you are an 8:1 underdog but when you hit your set you have better than 80% equity.  You also have excellent redraw ability against made flushes and straights with the possibility of the board pairing to give you a full boat.  It's also very stealthy.  On a dry board such as K-8-2 rainbow, you will almost always get your opponents entire stack when he makes top pair.  The only two drawbacks I can think of is this style of play is incredibly boring and it would not be effective in some games.

The boring aspect is no small hurdle.  I can imagine sitting for hours waiting to hit a set and when I finally do, some turkey bets into me with a gut shot that hits on the river.  The tilt factor would be enormous for me in a spot like that.  I might be able to play another hour or so with this style, silently steaming, but eventually I'd start to break down and start doing dumb things.  I just know myself too well.  To help, I would probably listen to music, watch a video on my iPhone or even read a book to pass the time.  Not exactly my idea of a fun day of cards...

Where and when I would try this Set Mining would make a difference too.  At my local casino, I probably wouldn't play like this because all the leather ass regulars would pick up on what I was doing very quickly.  Opponents would check to me or check behind and they would lay into me BIG whenever I was on the button.  However, on a packed Friday or Saturday night, I just might try it.  A constant circulation of unobservant fish might be the exact formula to make Set Mining work.  I would also need long sessions.  The two or three times an hour I would pick up pocket pairs or AK in my usual 2 hour playing sessions would probably not make it worth it.

So, in my upcoming trip to Las Vegas, I just might try Set Mining for a session or two.  At any rate, it's nice to add another tool to my kit.  I'm going to need a lot of them to become the winning player I aspire to be.

Notes

I definitely took the worst of it last night.  Probably the single biggest losing session I've had but I'm doing OK for a few reasons.

1. Deep down, I knew nights like these would come along.  That's why I made a bankroll so I would never be in a position to lose money I need to support myself.  I can weather sessions like this because I don't ever have to worry about where the house payment is coming from.
2. I conducted myself well at the table.  Stuck badly for pretty much the entire session, I joked, teased in a good natured way, chatted up other players about where they are from and what they do and made sure to greet my fellow regulars.  I even found the good cheer to tip the dealer my last $4.  Conducting myself in a calm and affable manner (even when what I want to do is just loose my SH*T) helps me feel more in control of myself and manage tilt better.  My opponents are smart enough to know when I'm taking the worst of it.  However, if they see that it's not setting me off or shaking my confidence, they are less likely to try and take a shot at me.
3. I took the time after the session to jot a few notes.  Usually after a good beating I'm mostly interested in distracting or trying to reassure myself that I didn't play badly and that I was simply a victim of bad cards and suckouts.  I honestly think this is largely true.  The big pots I lost were the result of coming up strong but second best and I don't think I hit my "fair share" of draws.  But, it would be a shame to not come away with SOMETHING for my money, even if it's just a lesson or two.  There will always be room for improvement in my game.  Probably none of the decisions that I would have made differently would have led to a better outcome.  But, my goal is to play the game as well as I can.  If I can do that, over the long haul it will mean success but not necessarily on a session by session basis.

So, here are some of my reflections:


Calling one bet on the flop (peeling) with only a small pair might be a big leak in my game.  Even getting 6 or 7:1 may not be enough drawing to only 5 outs.  If I cut this out, in a 4 hour session I would save almost $60.  Even if I end up wining two of these hands a session I'm still only breaking even.

With high pot equity hands I've been trying to raise more pre flop.  C-betting on a missed flop with 3 or 4 other players may not be working for me. It might be worth checking behind for a free turn card and folding if I don't improve, especially considering poisoned anchors (see post Loose Passive Players II).  

In mid-late position I have been limping in behind one or two other players open limp (aka over limping) with unsuited paint cards (as opposed to raising).  When I miss I can fold or check-fold without loosing the extra small bet I would have put in with the raise.   When I connect, I can add a little deception to my play as opponents won't suspect I have a strong kicker because I didn't raise pre-flop.  They are more likely to call down and turn over a dominated hand.

I need to cut back on limping in with suited trash.  Games I've been in lately are so passive that I can see a flop with at least six players for only one small bet, making it tempting to play hands as bad as suited two-gappers.  However, out of position, expectation is just too low to make up for all the lost small bets when I miss. In position it might be OK because I can try a free card play if I make four cards to a draw.

I like my raising only premium made hands if first in, pocket 10's and up. I stand a chance of thinning the field and taking the pot on the turn. If an over card comes I can check-fold the turn or I can check behind on the flop in position and fold to a bet on the turn.  10's thru Q's I've been over limping for the same reason as above.  I can fold to a bet when an over card comes.  I can also induce opponents to call down with their worse top pair because they don't suspect my over pair without a pre-flop raise.

If connecting on the flop and get two or three callers I need to pay close attention to flop texture. I need to charge opponents to draw but beware of made flushes and straights.

I seem to be winning the table image battle. Players seem scared of me when I raise on the flop. Post flop play is coming along but still needs work. I have to get up the balls to use check-raise more effectively. Especially in the blinds. When players start giving me free turn cards I know I'm making progress. 

Milestones

A couple big milestones yesterday.  The first one was that I crossed the threshold of doubling up my bankroll, after only about nine weeks of keeping track and about 70 hours of play.  This puts me at a win rate of 1.46 big bets per hour.  This is a great accomplishment but there are a few caveats.

1. This a very small sample size.  The trend is encouraging but it's probably too early to say I'm a winning player.  1.46 is good but it's probably too good.  Variance is probably stepping in and inflating my short term performance.  Once I get above 500 hours, this is a little more reliable sample size.  If I am at or above 1 bbph I'll be a very happy camper.
2. I've been adding in the bonus money I've won from a few high hand jackpots I hit.  It's around $3-400.  I debated whether I should count this money as session winnings or just add it as a deposit to my bankroll.  In the end I decided to count it.  The reason being is that I don't account for rake, jackpot drop and dealer tips in my session tracking.  I figure with these combined it's probably pretty close.

The other bit of good news is a little anecdotal but even more encouraging.  Over the past year or so I've been playing with a fellow I've gotten to know as Bart.  I found out awhile back that he's a retired physician and professor and a pretty good card player.  I didn't know how good until yesterday.  Here's  a link to Dr. Bart's professional player profile.  He has cashed in more than 5 major tournaments, written a couple books on poker and is a columnist for several magazines.  Interestingly, Dr. Bart did a stint at a local casino as a Proposition Poker Player and wrote one of his books about the experience.

Dr. Bart and I ended up cashing in a tournament together and started talking.  I'm planning my first trip to Las Vegas in a couple months and I was asking him about his experiences there.  He mentioned to me that it's getting more and more difficult to find fix limit games and suggested I stick to no-limit.  I told him I wasn't confident enough in my no-limit game to do more than play in small tournaments now and then.  He said, "Nah!  You'll do fine!"

I don't know if I'll take Dr. Bart's advice or not but I took it as a great complement that a very skilled and observant player regarded me as a good prospect.  His comment boosts my confidence more than the early returns on my bankroll and win rate!

Bonehead Play

I got clobbered in a hand last night that was probably the difference between a winning and loosing session for me. Here’s how it went down.

I was in the cutoff with AJ suited, three players limped and I called and the button and blinds called.  The flop came A-K-5 rainbow.  It checked to a loose aggressive guy who bet, a weak-tight player next to him called and I raised.  It folded back to LAG guy who called and weak-tight called.  The turn was a J.  LAG guy bet out (a donk bet) and weak-tight RAISED!

Now, I took some time thinking what all this meant but didn’t do the analysis I need to (more on that later).  My gut reaction was that weak-tight had been folding hands over and over all night and was basically going the way of Broomcorn’s uncle.  I should have been afraid of his raise, VERY AFRAID!  I went to fold my hand but then did a quick assessment of how much money was in the pot, what my chances of making a full house would be and noted he only had about $9 behind.  Ultimately, I talked myself into a call and pushed $16 into the pot.  The river was a blank.  LAG guy checked, weak-tight bet, I called but then LAG check-raised.  Weak-tight called and I mucked.  Here is the conversation I should have had with myself when faced with the turn raise:

“I can discount the very top range of LAG guy’s holdings like AA, JJ and KK because he has been raising pre flop quite a bit.  That leaves Q-10, A-K and 5-5 that are beating me.  Obviously, A-J I’m chopping.  Now, there is a whole BUNCH of other possible hands he could be playing like this A-Q, A-X, A-5, K-X, K-5, K-J, K-Q, J-X, J-5, QQ, 10-10 that I’m crushing.  So, I’m liking my flop raise and the turn donk is a typical sign of weakness from a player like this.  BUT, here comes Mr. Weak-tight!  His turn raise can only mean one of two hands, a set or Q-10 for Broadway, both are blowing me away.  There’s no way I’m good now, the A’s are probably dirty outs, leaving me drawing to two slim J’s.  There is no way I should be calling his turn raise.”

I tell ya, when I can get to the point where I’m more focused on my opponents potential holdings instead of what I’ve got or could be drawing to, I’m going to be one dangerous poker player!!