In my most recent coaching session with Ed I asked him about what to focus on while I’m in a hand. Obviously, the most important element would be putting opponents on a range of hands, but what about board texture? To be the good, proactive poker player I want to be I want to anticipate what cards might come and how they might affect my opponent’s holdings.
Ed told me about a hypothetical in that holding bottom two pair on a flop like 5-2-K with a bet and a call while discussing a hand in a coaching session. He asks the player, “OK, what are you thinking here about the possible holdings of your opponent.” He said that invariably players will answer something like, “Well, he could have pocket K’s for top set and beat me.” Ed says it’s not helpful to think like that. The likelihood of an opponent holding exactly that hand is so remote that it doesn’t deserve the energy needed to make the thought.
A much more helpful thought process is to focus on the swing hands. If an opponent holds a monster hand like top set, it really doesn’t matter what I do. Any decision I make will likely not affect the outcome of the hand, getting beat. Likewise, it’s not helpful to think much about hands I’m beating on a flop like this because who is going to call me? But, what about all the other potential holdings of my opponent; those hands that could be influenced one way or another by the decisions I make (bet, call, raise). In our example, the most helpful line of thinking is to imagine hands that could draw out on me, not because I should fear these hands and back off on my aggression, but because those are the hands that are going to pay me off. Those are my target hands.
For hands to have value Ed says they have to meet two criteria. One, is that you have to get money in the pot. The value of aggression is that it gives you another way to win but it also builds pots for you to profit. The other criteria is that you have to get to show down. Unless you get to show down the only value a hand has is folding equity. In fixed limit this is seldom much of a problem because players so rarely fold hands on the turn (but they often do on the river when draws don’t pan out). This last point highlights something important; when I have a value hand in order to realize that value I have to allow for the possibility that my opponent will draw out.
This was a big change in my thinking. In the past our example hand would often cause me to put on the brakes on the turn. I would bet out or raise in position on the flop and get three callers and think I was up against a better two pair or set. The truth is that on boards like 5-2-K I am going to get calls, not because opponents are beating me but because loosely connected boards with a single high card connect with LOTS of hands. Gutshots around the 5-2, small pairs (5’s, 2’s) that will peel on the flop to see if they can improve are all absolutely along for the ride on a hand like this. Another really common thing players do at these low stakes is play any king.
What do all these hands (gut shots, small pairs, weak K’s) have in common? Well, they can all draw out on bottom two pair. BUT, they are also the hands that will pay you off. Risk vs. reward is the name of the game in poker. So much of the majority of the time the board will roll out on the turn with something like Q, 7 or 10, 8 cards that have nothing to do with hands that are calling you. But, if a 3 comes out or another K and someone whips out a check-raise, only then might you consider taking your foot off the gas.
Thinking about those swing hands and what the turn and river might do to them is the most profitably way to think when playing hands for value.
